I see many post in the comments about a correction not happening till after the release of bitcoin gold. Ok I'm not a big on News driving markets more that markets move in cycles. So this morning I started seeing if there was a correlation between the June correction and the current chart which as we posted recently have similar patterns. Let's see if there is a correlation with time!
The first cycle I added to the June chart was from the start of the final blowoff to the first dip. Nice 2 day correlation and it is not surprising the second dip happened 2 days after, so lock it in. Then I looked at the small correction just before the final leg up. A little more than a day, so let's see how that works. WOW, both cycles correlate to critical points on the chart. The second selloff on the 8th of June but also the beginning of the Broader selloff that started on the 11th.
So let's see how those same cycles work on the current chart. If I just use the same time cycles as June there is absolutely no correlation it's a mess. But we do not care about days we care about points. So I adjusted it from the start of the last leg up and the first dip. Bam 3 day cycle. Holy Moses it dipped on the on the 6th day (next cycle) ok let me see if the the dip works as well. Well it doesn't amaze me. By using the final mini cycle from the 9th to the 11th I get the exact same correlation as the June chart!
Now let's take a look at the second correlation on the 27th of October where we would expect the start of to be in a selloff. Less than 2 days after the release of gold!
A further look into how we can expect the movement to go is that we pierced with a wick the $3000 psychological barrier. Well as I'm writing that we just did that but that is not the critical level. From the bottom of the correction to the final top the move was 19% of the overall price after the first correction. adding 19% to the bottom of this current price puts us right around $6104.
In a previous article we have a red line drawn at $6245 which would verify the correction happened at the bull is to resume (keep in mind a large correction can happen but is unlikely). Now until this happens we just do not jump on the rocket bandwagon. We must keep in the back of our mind a correction can still happen.
It is also important to look at risk rewards. Buying at $5700 for a $500 movement when a potential $1700 correction can happen according to EW is not a good risk reward. Do it enough you will get burned so unless you bought the $4750 breakout I would not be buying here. I would most likely close as the $6000 target was hit from our article "another leg up".
So I have changed to neutral as I expect us to trade sideways with movement between $5500 and $6100. But the cycles (as rough as my chart is) could indicate an upcoming correction, and I am not a cycle guy (market timer) so I will just stay neutral until we get past this date.
Many other setups have better risk to rewards and I have posted a few this morning!
Commento
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One other note it was exactly 5 large cycles in both charts from the start of the run to the final correction and 5 smaller cycles from the major correction. Patterns in the market are sometimes scary!
Commento
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My buddy MarcPmarkets wrote a great article on BTC today. It's worth it's weight in bitcoin gold ;) I couldn't agree more with what he says.
Bro, I love your contributions and I know you're long term BTC bull.... but I can't help but wonder how many newbies sold their BTC based off your charts (like yesterday-- tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/x6y1rmZF-BTC-Cash-Is-King-in-Market-Corrections/) when they'd be better off holding... I know you didn't say SELL but still, to a lot of people your charts have a bearish bias
But I guess it's their fault for not making their own decisions lol
AmazinRaisin
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@devilninja777, Hes been leaning towards shorting since like 4000 lol
goldbug1
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@devilninja777, Thank you Devil. Actually I have had numerous people state they bought the previous dip or were still long from $4750 where I posted the article "another leg up" and did not get scared and sell out. In my charts I provide both bull and bear ideas and it's up to the reader to determine what to make of it. People like @AmazinRaisin are new to markets in general as traders. As a trader you MUST know both possibilities not just look at one side because your emotionally attached. I mentioned if your looking for buy here sell here stop here hold your hand trades, I'm not the one to follow. I have since Sept provided levels at which we need to review the charts and determine possible outcomes. This is the intent of the articles. As an investor you just stay long and add on dips, and I'm not adding here nor would I recommend it. But if you read the comments where someone said "hey i do not own any BTC when is a good time to buy", I have responded with "when is not a good time to enter, I would just not go all in here come in in blocks".
With the cash is king article, that was a follow up to where I had closed all "trading" positions until the market settled down (over a week ago) I never sold core holdings. If you go back the past few days, many TA's were crushed in trades. This is why I posted the cash is king, and now with 30% in cash we can scoop up some good trades like we did today. Where many lost their butts trying to force a trade during a "market" in correction. Again it said "market in correction" not bitcoin. With bitcoin the only good risk to reward trade is going short and I'm not doing it nor have I recommened it, and I was clear in the article on risk to reward that this is a scenario to show risk to reward and I was NOT going short.
Again thank you for commenting and yes if you need someone to hold your hand through a trade, then you should not be trading. You make your own decisions it's your money. After all you wouldn't buy a car based on the car I like would you? No you do your own research, but somehow with trading it's different.
Btckk89
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@goldbug1, thank you so much for your valuable analysis and generosity in sharing your insights and experiences. They really do help to take away the emotions, which are main killers imo. Also appreciate your above explanations, if some still don't understand them, they are better off holding to ensure they don't lose more than gain.
AmazinRaisin
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@goldbug1, noob me getting bunch of eth at $10 and btc at like $900 in January. XD
goldbug1
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@AmazinRaisin, That is great. I still thought in January it was a ponzie scheme to be honest. It wasn't until April that I realized I needed to be in this. Great job getting in cheap!! thanks for commenting
roz133
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@goldbug1, every time you deal with comments like that the way you do, you gain more respect in my eyes. You're an amazing person. A complete lack of ego always makes you a better trader as well. Thank you for all the insight you provide and staying classy while you do it.
Expecting prices to not go down before Gold is released (regardless of its value) is not understanding that whales or whoever tries to manipulate the market know that this is the common belief and will try to be one step ahead; they will probably start dumping a few days earlier. I thought that was the case a couple of days ago when price went back to the $5100 bear trap, but I guess it was too early.
goldbug1
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@SafeGamble, Good point! Love your insight as always!
But I guess it's their fault for not making their own decisions lol