On reflection, I am cancelling any Longs given we are at extended levels. Whilst, there is a possibility we can get to 6k I am conscious of 2 things I see in my TA, which I cannot ignore.
1. According to my Wave Count, we are in Wave 5 on a Daily Chart. Wave 3, is usually the longest but Wave 5 can be equal to Wave 3. There is just not "enough meat on the bone" for a Long now.
2. Momentum concerns me. The High of 2Sept17 came with falling momentum, resulting in a selloff (Wave4). We have rising momentum, however, if we compare 17Aug17 high's price and momentum and the current price high and momentum we can see that price has exceeded 17Aug17 High but momentum has not exceeded 17Aug17 momentum peak.
Given we appear to be at extended levels on the Wave Count and Momentum is not in synch, this makes me wary.
I only look for High Probability Plays, so this does not match my criteria.
Therefore my golden rule is: "WHEN IN DOUBT STAY OUT" and I am going with a neutral stance, for now, and not willing to risk my capital which remains intact.
NOTE: On a Weekly Wave Count, I am very bullish (see related chart)
Sean Vengan 10+ Years Professional Trader and Trading Educator
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It’s literally been I sell my partial BTC Holdings in the expectation of a correction and both times after 2 hours they shoot up by $500. Now it’s do I wait for the “correction” or not - and using past technical analysis of my luck I know we will probably moon now that I’m holding my BTC in cash, it’s just ridiculous.
@filipnr1, it’s just like pure shit chance this has happened... if my decisions had of been made just a couple hours later I’d be up a few grand... like give me a break.
rcjwhittaker
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@filipnr1, it appears for the majority of BTC holders that selling their long position has rarely ever done good.
I think the rule should have been the opposite with BTC
WHEN IN DOUBT STAY IN!!!!!
UnknownUnicorn1063189
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@rcjwhittaker, There will be many many trades in your trading lifetime - 1 trade is insignificant. This tells me your trading mindset that needs considerable work on if you are worried about 1 trade.
In trading, you have to understand that any trade can be a winner or could EASILY be a loser.
If you trade on FOMO than you are trading on emotions and are guaranteed to blow up your account.
invisiblefriend
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@SEAN_VENGAN, again i cannot thank u for keeping me calm on both sides of coin -- and looking at the large educated future ---- its all a mystery but only to a degree --especially when studying as well as we all try -- and thx for your analysis and thoughts AMAZING HELP
you have really thought me how to look at big picture
just a couple months ago --
i would sell and chase the high as i worried about "missing out " only always regretting not waiting till my educated entry point !
thx for reminding me how easy it is to get caught up in the drama - good or bad :)
Many traders have some BTC they leave long (untouched) and then a portion they trade with - so it depends on what approach is working best for you. If trading is giving you pain, perhaps while educating and exploring trading with smaller amounts have a good portion of BTC you simply put in and leave. While I'm watching with caution, several years of Bitcoin growing solidly despite what comes against it gives it a robustness that is hard to deny.
Having researched the fundamentals closely the key threat I see to Bitcoin which currently has the monopoly edge through being the first and most popular, is whether the fees and transaction capacity become more of an issue in the months ahead. For the rest of 2017 I don't see this as a concern - people treat it like an investment in gold which they park rather than a coin to buy things with - so I expect it to stay bullish (overall) into 2018 if you are to leave any portion in.
In the longer run the developer/mining community might continue to keep pace with just enough scaling solutions to keep its position as the gold standard - otherwise Bitcoin may eventually become irrelevant if those issues create too much pain for consumers. For now people don't seem to care about paying $5 to $10 to transfer BTC. Segwit2X is only a temporary solution but 'may' open the door to successful offchain solutions that help keep Bitcoin as the centre of commerce - instead of becoming slowly redundant.
All other fundamentals are fine in my opinion and are going from strength to strength for Bitcoin.
It’s literally been I sell my partial BTC Holdings in the expectation of a correction and both times after 2 hours they shoot up by $500. Now it’s do I wait for the “correction” or not - and using past technical analysis of my luck I know we will probably moon now that I’m holding my BTC in cash, it’s just ridiculous.