We are now approaching the resistance of the biggest bearish pattern that we had on bitcoin since the huge falling triangle of 2018 broke down, and this pattern is now so mature that it's now more likely than ever to be the last time it touches this resistance, possibly right before we have the real dump to 8k-7k and below. The target for a triangle this big should be around 4.8k if i remember correctly, but on the log scale i think it was at just about 6k or somewhere in that area.. I have been shorting every top I could, and while one or two of my positions might end up getting liquidated by some bullshit green wick I will still continue to place more and more short orders because I think that bitcoin is way overdue for a correction, it cannot ignore the basic rules of price action for this long, and this insane unexplained unsustainable run from 3k to 14k was not ever going to be a simple light switch that can just turn on the crazy bull market again with complete disregard for time that needs to pass.. My advice(not financial advice)is to short from the green box with low leverage and from those two resistance lines with a bit more leverage, and I really think riding this dump is very likely to end up being the best short position of the entire year.
unexplained? Please remember: markets don't follow TA ! It's a question of supply and demand. Not more, not less. And TA alone will not help you one millimeter if you don't understand the surroundings, driving supply and demand. Greetz
jambalulu
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@otternose, Well obviously this is all a game of supply and demand, but the reason for this crazy surge in demand is still not clear seeing how there are still hardly any new people at all entering the space at the moment.. And Also TA is just the way we can give a percent chance to certain scenarios, and it actually can let us foresee the likelihood of incoming changes in supply and demand in many different markets ,but it's not like at some point some indicator said there is a 100% chance that bitcoin has to correct now and then BTC defied it or something.. There is just no fundamental logic in this huge rise without actually substantial increases in the usage and adoption of bitcoin, or new investors entering the space..
otternose
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@jambalulu, I agree.
But where do you see, that there are NO new people entering the space? I see the opposite. It may come, that I am a programmer and safe with blockchain technology. So I can make my own research directly. Fact is there are new people (small normal ppl) entering (growing number of wallets, addresses etc. as an indicator). Fact also is that institutional or bigger players entering. They do it silently and not very public. Fact is also that all the big players in the game build a strategy to make money. That are big miner companies, banks, investment vehicles, exchanges, countries etc.
E.g. the mining companies need a minimum value to mine profitably. They start the year with bigger losses and need now a higher BTC value. So what will they do? Yes, despite if they are allowed by law to do so, they will drive the price higher. There are a lot of techniques on how to do this if you are big enough and if you have deep pockets ;-) Some are stock companies and need to make their shareholders happy. They invested a lot and they will not accept to lose. That's why I am sure we will not see the BTC under $9000 this year again.
Let's look at the exchanges and the "investment betting industry": if they can cash in more money by manipulating the direction and the price level the BTC goes and e.g. liquidating a lot of shorts or longs, what you think, will they do? Yes. I am pretty sure they will and they do.
It's not good but we have to handle this and if we try to predict we always have to look for the interests or possible strategies of the big players, whales or however you call them.
This year always the opposite of this happens what the broader mass expected.
Positive: adoption of BTC, slowly but more and more people are aware of. Maybe with the wrong focus (get rich quick). More normal ppl in the game less or harder manipulation possibilities for the whales.
Generally: so all these are trends in a changing world, with a struggling (regulated) capitalistic money system. You can see and feel this in Europe (EUR) you can see this in US (Dollar). Wait if all ppl are aware of this and how they are cheated. What will they do?