As I mentioned a few days ago, there could be a bearish outlook on BTC at which we might hit 4400-ish. Today I am going to break it down in details. Before going into that, this is a speculative outlook towards the bearish scenario, so I am wearing a bearish cap on me which means things in play can be biased. This should not be considered as it will turn out like this.
Timeframe:
I use the daily chart within 12 month period starting from May 2017 up to now to perform a intermediate Elliot wave cycle.
Market conditions:
We had a fantastic market back in 2017 where things are too bullish to be scared and the market kept being inflated til end of December and panic sell offs everywhere. Now, we are still in a very bearish market where no bulls are trying to push the price up, institutional investors are just standing on the side line and holding their big cash and market manipulators keep on shorting the market. It seems things are looking down?! Personally i think it is a good and healthy correction for a stronger momentum to build up. Blockchain is being implemented and used wider and wider at a rapid rate. According to my research, there is only 5% and expanding in global adoption.
Looking at this, whoever reading this article is an amazing market adopter who believes in the technology, decentralised and transparent system that will change our life. Short term losses are just the pennies in your pockets compared to the bank you will make over the years. So stay tune in this market.
Technical analysis:
I spent a couple of hours trying to find market confluency between trendlines, support and resistance, Fibonacci and Elliot waves.
I suggest that, in the wider picture, we might be forming an ABC correction. Eventhough ABC correction is something much less popular than WYX in today's leverage market. But I still think if there is a further steep, an ABC correction could play out on BTC
Breakdown:
ABC correction includes two subdivision waves of 5 impulsive waves and one subdivision of 3 corrective waves.
So far, BTC has formed the first impulsive wave and corrective subdivision as in the image. Regardless of the rally recently in the market over the last few days, the daily time chart still shows us a bloody steep to shit downward trendline as we can see. If this is what is being played out, we might see a fall to 6000 create a double bottom in February and the market will rally at a weaker bullish momentum. The green circles are creating a sub downward trendline which might influence the wave 4 in the 2nd impulsive wave. In order to validate this, BTC needs to satisfy to conditions: lower low (wave 1 and 3) and lower high (wave 2 and 4). This will support the formation of the last impulsive wave in this ABC correction
Predicted trough:
According to my price study of BTC over the years, 0.786 has an extremely strong support for market reversal from bearish to bullish. As the Fibonacci sequences play out, the 0.786 can fall somewhere between 5000 to 4000. It is impossible to predict exact trough. At this level, I believe BTC will have a warm welcome of investors around the world to jump in and we will start an impulsive wave 3 in the intermediate BTC EW cycle. Wave 3 means the potential price can hit to 35000 sometime in the future. I am not a big believer of 50000 unless I see real back-up evidence or a price running model myself.
Again! This is a bearish outlook, things might not turn as what it says here, as I am looking right into the worst scenario that could happen!
I hope this article will somewhat calm us down and have a positive outlook on BTC in a longer term. People should look at BTC in a few years time not how it is right now.
Support me by your thumbs-up and follow for details TA and FA in the crypto space.
Disclaimer:
I am not a financial adviser. Trading is extremely personalised, so also do your own research and trade with your personality.
Timeframe:
I use the daily chart within 12 month period starting from May 2017 up to now to perform a intermediate Elliot wave cycle.
Market conditions:
We had a fantastic market back in 2017 where things are too bullish to be scared and the market kept being inflated til end of December and panic sell offs everywhere. Now, we are still in a very bearish market where no bulls are trying to push the price up, institutional investors are just standing on the side line and holding their big cash and market manipulators keep on shorting the market. It seems things are looking down?! Personally i think it is a good and healthy correction for a stronger momentum to build up. Blockchain is being implemented and used wider and wider at a rapid rate. According to my research, there is only 5% and expanding in global adoption.
Looking at this, whoever reading this article is an amazing market adopter who believes in the technology, decentralised and transparent system that will change our life. Short term losses are just the pennies in your pockets compared to the bank you will make over the years. So stay tune in this market.
Technical analysis:
I spent a couple of hours trying to find market confluency between trendlines, support and resistance, Fibonacci and Elliot waves.
I suggest that, in the wider picture, we might be forming an ABC correction. Eventhough ABC correction is something much less popular than WYX in today's leverage market. But I still think if there is a further steep, an ABC correction could play out on BTC
Breakdown:
ABC correction includes two subdivision waves of 5 impulsive waves and one subdivision of 3 corrective waves.
So far, BTC has formed the first impulsive wave and corrective subdivision as in the image. Regardless of the rally recently in the market over the last few days, the daily time chart still shows us a bloody steep to shit downward trendline as we can see. If this is what is being played out, we might see a fall to 6000 create a double bottom in February and the market will rally at a weaker bullish momentum. The green circles are creating a sub downward trendline which might influence the wave 4 in the 2nd impulsive wave. In order to validate this, BTC needs to satisfy to conditions: lower low (wave 1 and 3) and lower high (wave 2 and 4). This will support the formation of the last impulsive wave in this ABC correction
Predicted trough:
According to my price study of BTC over the years, 0.786 has an extremely strong support for market reversal from bearish to bullish. As the Fibonacci sequences play out, the 0.786 can fall somewhere between 5000 to 4000. It is impossible to predict exact trough. At this level, I believe BTC will have a warm welcome of investors around the world to jump in and we will start an impulsive wave 3 in the intermediate BTC EW cycle. Wave 3 means the potential price can hit to 35000 sometime in the future. I am not a big believer of 50000 unless I see real back-up evidence or a price running model myself.
Again! This is a bearish outlook, things might not turn as what it says here, as I am looking right into the worst scenario that could happen!
I hope this article will somewhat calm us down and have a positive outlook on BTC in a longer term. People should look at BTC in a few years time not how it is right now.
Support me by your thumbs-up and follow for details TA and FA in the crypto space.
Disclaimer:
I am not a financial adviser. Trading is extremely personalised, so also do your own research and trade with your personality.