Today, we explore how Bitcoin has a strange love for Fibonacci and it's strong affinity for the 61.8% retracement level.
If this fractal holds up with this most recent downtrend, we could see a pull back to the $5100-$5300 level before deciding on it's next move..
I wrote about Bitcoin's love for Fibonacci before and the 61.8% trend before on two different analysis, but this will be looking at an interesting 61.8% retracement fractal dating back to 2013.
MY PREVIOUS Bitcoin Analysis: Bitcoin Analysis and It's Love For Fibonacci
It's easy to see the 61.8% retracement level of the total move from the previous low of the last bear market was a very important level for Bitcoin in 2018.
It acted as a support and resistance on some of the biggest moves as price flipped back and forth around it.
In the past, the 61.8% retracement level held true as well.
In 2013, we saw many different examples of Bitcoin's pull back to the 61.8% in both the uptrends and the downtrends with exact precision.
After we bottomed out and came out of the former bear market, we saw the 61.8% retracement level play a pivotal role in all of the crashes on the way up during Bitcoin's monumental uptrend.
And More...
Even in the decline from $20,000 where I wrote extensively about the 61.8% retracement level... the 61.8% retracement was very apparent on almost every pull back from the $6,000 support level .
That brings us to the here and now...
Looking at the decline from the break at $6400 to the potential swing low bottom at $3200, that gives us a potential 61.8% retracement to the holds true, that would give us a long opportunity to the $5200-$5300 zone:
We are also seeing that the 314 MA on the daily chart is also heading towards that level as well to get double confluence. (314 MA is a long term moving average that is used by some trading professionals.)
I was initially mid term bearish pending a CME futures gap being filled and a drop back down to fill other gaps and potentially a double bottom or at least to test the support of the lower end of the ascending triangle, especially with the low volume, but this fractal has me second guessing.
I also discovered a CME futures gap on hte hourly chart right at the .618 Retracement Zone here:
The intresting part about that is you have to use the wick before the big move down to get them EXACTLY at the same level. That wick, if you recall went right into the .618 zone from the TOTAL move.
The $5380 level may be the most important level to watch as a key resistance before a fall back down.
Using the CME gap and the $5380 level on the FUTURES chart, we can do a 'future forecast with the swing low and the swing high for a potential pull back zone and it lines up PERFECTLY with the current resistance level at $3986 for a pull back.
This is obviously long term forecasting and this is dependent on a breakout above $4291 and remember, NOTHING goes up in a straight line and this is all based on probability and mathematics and it's important to do your own due diligence on your own charts and to confirm with other indicators, price action and your own trading strategy.
What do you guys think? Are we heading back up to the 61.8% level... or was it all JUST coincidence and we're in for more downside momentum?
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Happy Friday and Happy Trading!
Commento
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We are currently at Resistance and seeing stop runs on lower time frames.
Sometimes it’s best to zoom out
As always, manage your risk and maintain a stop loss where the market invalidates your trade thesis.
If the triangle breaks down, this thesis is invalidated.
In my humble opinion, it is not Bitcoin's obsession ("strange love" as you call it), but your obsession to use the Fib Retracement Tool and paint the charts in a way that 0.618 always gives a supposedly special meaning.
By soberly looking at the plain facts, the following picture emerges for me:
Bitcoin will fall heavily around April 19, 20019 again.
Do not be fooled by the alleged super-analyzes.
Sometimes less over-analyzing is more.
jacobcanfield
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@ReallyMe, I appreciate the feedback. You can look at it however you'd like. I found a probability pattern that shows me what is likely to happen, which is what trading is all about. Finding a high outcome probability that has happened before and using it for your trading edge.
You can choose to counter trade it, fade it, and do whatever your analysis is telling you to do.
ReallyMe
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@jacobcanfield, Yes, I do think that we're in for more downside momentum in a few weeks.
surangadesilva
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With the RESPECT for your analysis please also see my 3 btc bear market analysis with EW + FIBO + SUPPORT & RESISTANCE + TRENDLINES
Therefore max of Y of this cycle 3 i see is 4750 and we already achieved the min fibo which is 4060
But also don't forget that we are getting closer to the long term down trend line that the btc got rejected over 5 times now and without any major volume btc wont be able to break this im afraid so here are the important fibo for the blue wave Y of (X) of ((Z)) of this triple zigzag correction. Until bots are in the game this cycle repeats
jacobcanfield
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@surangadesilva, Interesting. I’ll dig in when I’m back at my computer
PermaBulltard
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It’s been consistently, going down and right back up to 61.8% (0.786).
The thing is, why wouldn’t it shot back up right away when it first touched 3k?
That’s my only concern.
Poukitoun
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@AdrWijaya, maybe there was a change in trend. Most altcoins have also changed their behaviour since we got to 3k.
Zoen_Trieste
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BTCUSD Monthly Structure
fract
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Good job. Check my take on bitcoin with different scenarios.
jacobcanfield
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@investa, very interesting. I had an estimate for the $5280 level coming in May.
By soberly looking at the plain facts, the following picture emerges for me:
Bitcoin will fall heavily around April 19, 20019 again.
Do not be fooled by the alleged super-analyzes.
Sometimes less over-analyzing is more.