Bitcoin update: 17,600 was tested earlier today as it appears short term participants are beginning to get nervous? As price continues to gyrate around the 18,500 key inflection point, bearish reversal patterns are still likely to develop here. For this reason, we continue to AVOID any new swing trades until the criteria of our LONG ONLY swing trade strategy is met and it begins with the test of a major support level.
Key Support Levels:
At this point, we are waiting for price to test the 16K to high 14K area. That is where proportional support is likely to assert itself. Reaching our anticipated support does NOT justify a trade. Instead it begins the evaluation process to see IF price can provide a bullish setup and confirmation. It is only at this point where we can clearly measure risk and justify sharing a new idea.
Price Action Now:
Today's move from the 18770 high to the 17600 low demonstrates how FAST selling activity can assert itself. Even if today's candle establishes a bullish pin bar, the risk at these levels for a SWING TRADE is still unreasonably high. Keep in mind this is NOT the same for a day trade strategy, but as you can see without a well defined plan or decision making process, it is very easy to give back any recent profits as a result of an emotional reaction to a surprise price move.
Reactive trading (herd mentality) does not sustain consistency, and is reinforced by random rewards. That is why we employ a set of rules, and we simply trade the rules. These rules are not perfect, and can be hard on the intuitive demand for pleasure (or profit) as asserted by human nature. We missed over 3K points of profit since our swing trade exit at 13,250, BUT our account does not shrink as a result.
There are those who want action, and those who want to make money. More action does NOT equate to more money. Look no further than your personal track record to identify your true motivation.
Thank you as always Marc, a steady voice in a volatile asset :)
john_galassi
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@ElementalTrade, I agree. Very wise to stress the point on the "action" seekers, like you did in your recent YT episode.
I agree with you and it's something maybe I've become aware lately
Started buying on March 2nd and kept buying since then (bought the dip of March 13th as well). Sold all of my Bitcoins yesterday. I'm as optimistic as you can be on Bitcoin, but don't feel comfortable buying at 7% of ATH after the huge rally we're having since mid-October.
It's quite a tricky situation because neither holding, buying or selling seems a good idea LOL.
Fartman
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@Morchella, Agreed 100%. I've sold and then watched it soar. I've seen it soar, as I held and then only to watch just dump off the edge. I didn't make that mistake this time. I sold pieces starting in the 13.3K range all the way up to a piece at $18,964 - NO REGRATS.
I'm taking my wad of money and buying back in at $13750