Well now BTC is weaker than anticipated. I expected a stronger breakout from the falling wedge, however it seems I overestimated BTC.
The problem is the high longs: It looked as if shorts would increase again, but this is not the case. Together with the extremely weak breakout, I think that the chances for new lows directly, without bounce from here, are starting to increase.
I cannot put exact percentages out, but my feeling says about 70/30 for dumps/bounce.
Target is around the 2k area. We shall then see if we get a good bounce. If not, then BTC is indeed headed for 980-1200 USD sometime later this year.
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On bitstamp, the falling wedge is still intact:
Normally, falling wedges mostly break out to the upside, but btc looks so weak, I don't know if it will manage to do so.
Commento
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This is crazy, BTC is pushing it to the limit, being in this falling wedge probably until the very last second:
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Commento
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Now, will the wedge break to the upside or downside? The still high longs favor the downside, the falling wedge however normally being a more bullish sign. Mixed signals, as always. We'll just have to wait for a significant breakout.
Commento
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Finally the wedge breaking to the upside, or again a failed attempt?
Commento
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Break to the upside confirmed, the break to the downside has been averted !
Also, pretty simple to explain the longs. Institutions simply finally got out of their shorts. This drop was the liquidity they needed to do so IMO
deactivatedaccount123
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If this is indeed a real breakout of a massive multi-week wedge, I highly doubt the original breakout will have much volume.
It's the re-test that lacks in volume that we have to watch out for.