BTC October Map

Scope: Neutral, educational context for $BTC. Not advice or a signal.

Context
• Seasonality: October often prints green for BTC; context, not a forecast.
• Policy/FX: Easing bias + softer USD supports risk; a USD spike or hawkish pivot is a headwind.
• Flows/Structure: Spot ETF net inflows persist; realized vol lower than pre-ETF regime.
• Positioning: Exchange balances sit below prior cycles; Q4 structure shows higher highs/lows.
• Primary risks: Policy shocks, regulation, geopolitics, broad risk-off.


Reference Levels (USD)
• Stretch support: 80,000
• Major support: 100,000
• Invalidation guide: 111,000 (daily close below = trend risk)
• Area of interest: 115,000–118,000 (reclaim + hold)
• Trigger band: 117,000–119,000
• Targets to study: 119,000, 136,500, 143,000

Note that “Entry” = area to monitor, not a market order. “Invalidation” = close beyond the level on your timeframe.

If/Then Map

Continuation
• If reclaim 117–119k -> hold on retest with stable volume -> map upside 136.5k -> 143k.

Pullback
• If reject 117–119k and lose 115–118k -> watch 100k.
• If 100k fails -> path opens toward 80k stretch.

Invalidation
• If daily close < 111k -> uptrend thesis at risk until reclaimed.


Method Notes
• Confirmation-first: Reclaim then hold before assuming continuation.
• Risk framing: Many cap single-idea risk at 1–3% to a hard stop.
• Scale plan: 40% at T1 -> 40% at T2 -> 20% runner; move stop to breakeven after T1.
• Global pause: Close below invalidation or sharp DXY spike -> reassess before new risk.


What Changes This View
• Macro: Clear hawkish shift or dollar surge.
• Structure: Loss of 111k on a closing basis.
• Flow: Sustained ETF outflows and liquidity deterioration.

Disclaimer: Informational only. No recommendations or guarantees. Verify data and follow platform rules, and please as always DYOR also.