Do you remember the following two ideas posted in mid July and mid June respectively?
Those where about the "Underlying Trend-line" that dominates the price action and sets up the temp since March. As you see its role as a Pivot Point has worked perfectly and has helped us identify consolidation phases and break-outs.
** The Fibonacci Channel ** At the moment I see new possibilities and have to update the pattern, changing it slightly as I make use of the Fibonacci Channel on the logarithmic scale. As you see, Bitcoin is trading since July 27, within the 0.618 and 1.000 level of the Fibonacci Channel. This is similar to the April 29 - June 01 sequence. What followed was a slow pull-back phase to the 0.5 - 0.382 Fibonacci range, which gave rise to the next rally. I have analyzed these fractal similarities on the ideas below:
** New perspective ** A pull-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci level seems more likely now than further uptrend, but we have to consider another scenario moving forward. That is the possibility that the current sequence is repeating the March 20 - April 7 price action. That was also almost a triple top (on the 0.5 Fib then), but instead of pulling back, it rose rapidly to the 1.0 Fib level. If this is repeated a 0.5 extension on top of the 1.0 is 1.5, which right now is around $16500. Now that would be of course too high, too strong and too soon and Bitcoin would need an outside catalyst (such as the March economic stimulus package which catapulted stocks and cryptos alike).
So again it appears that a relief action in the form of a pull back is right now what seems more likely and what will give us another opportunity to accumulate BTC.
Which scenario do you think Bitcoin will follow? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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i agree with you but i think we have drop after 16k
pool_party
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Excellent work. Think we'll fill the CME gap at 9700? This analysis makes it look tough to do that though, and we never filled the 3500 one. How much time has to pass before we abandon previously unfilled gaps?
Love this idea. Maybe because I put in some buy orders around the price points you are suggesting, I woke up this morning to pull them thinking I was fooling myself but you have given me something to hold on too. Dig your stuff thank you for sharing.
CurtisTerry
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As usual you are the best excellent worker..Keep it up..
Saeed966
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On a larger time frame it appears bearish
Praxis_Technologies
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Really well done.
PolarHusk
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nice idea, thanks for sharing
cosmicnexus
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Hey TS, minor typo correction...BTC been trading since July 27 between .618 and 0 levels on autofibs...
It's certainly possible it could pull back to the .5 level, my sense is it will probably get support around the .382 level though based on where it is in %B at .37, and the lower band thus being very close to .382, those are both fairly solid indicators. Historically there have been relatively few times BTC has punched down through the lower BB very far. However, when this has happened it's always been followed by a fairly signifcant and often rapid rebound higher. Sooo... if we get the breakthrough down to .5 fibs level you think may happen and it happens fairly quickly versus didling down over time, we would see that lower BB broken down throuhg and that indeed could be a great time not only for accumulation, but also entry into swing trades.