The bear trap confirmed, the rising wedge broke up even if it shouldn't have, but wave patterns are not clear at all. Subwaves are hidden by pumps and dumps, so it's quite hard to say on what kind of wave we are now. It does not really look like an impulse wave, the volume is way too low. It looks like whales are fighting hard to push the price up, but without managing to convince people. That said, we've managed to cross the $8500 resistance and the $8700 older Fibonacci level and hit the top of the uptrend channel, where we got rejected, so a retracement should be in progress. How much of a retracement? Well, as trader filbfilb analyzed, many longs were under water until now. At this price level, a big part of them might have got in the money; some of them will just wait for the price to increase, but others might liquidate. This might trigger an avalanche to send us to test the dark grey uptrend line (red scenario). In any case, to confirm a bullish trend, we need to test the bottom of the uptrend channel (cyan scenario), and the red one will happen only if the bottom doesn't hold as support. Otherwise the cyan scenario should continue by building a range in the channel, which should gige the trend later. Or, the most bullish one, would be to be rejected on the $8700 Fib support and jump again; but I think this one is less likely due to the lack of volume. On the other side, many bears are now out of the market due to the many recent bear traps, and they will not be easily convinced to buy at higher level than the bear traps where they sold. Let's see what will happen, for now longs are liquidating on BTCUSDLONGS chart as I am writing, meaning we're going down.
Commento
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The daily RSI level is 60!!! it never went higher after the big bubble in December! For the moment the $8700 support holds, but I think not for long.
Commento
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Please note that any support level could send us up again; not so likely or fast though, since we're back in the channel.
Commento
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If that thing building up here is a small rising wedge an not another bear trap, then the next stop is $8500.
Commento
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Testing the top of the channel again. It looks like we are on a 3rd wave; it might be a C wave from an ABC correction, cause it would be too short for an impulse wave if it retraces near here. The wave patterns have been jammed by pumps and dumps, so it's really hard to tell. But if we don't retrace down to less than $8000, the future is very bullish. On the other side, the MACD is still bearish right now, and RSI went again too high, and we have a bearish divergence, supporting the bears takeover.
If you look at the weekly chart, we haven't actually crossed the upper side of the wedge so no breakout yet. Would it mean we're going back to 6ish or below?
Just my 2 cents
floring67
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@Polotto, I was talking about the smaller wedge, which I was supposing it was a bear trap - and it was; the big one is not so clear, that is why I didn't talk about it. Anyway looking at the many comparisons with the 2014 crash, this can still happen, but not if we manage to go sideways beyond the moment of the intersection between the big dark grey downtrend line with the big dark grey uptrend line; this should happen around April 30. So if it doesn't crash before the end of the month, I think it will be extremely bullish after.
floring67
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@floring67, I forgot, the big rising wedge crosses the whole uptrend channel; so its target cannot be lower than the bottom of the channel; I suppose it would bethe $7912 level, if it doesn't prove to be a bear trap also.
Just my 2 cents