On track to end Wave 2...

So far so good - on track to end Wave 2. The only question is where will subwave 5 end?

There are many opinions about where this bear trend will end. I myself have drawn the same trend lines (in purple) that everyone seems to agree on, but they're really not that reliable. BTC will ignore trend lines enough times for you to lose your shirt.

What I find more reliable are the Elliot Wave charts. Other than 1 mistake I made - I thought that Wave 3 started but it was really just subwave B of Wave 2 going up, Elliot Wave has been pretty bang on in determining the behavior of the current trend. I'm betting this will continue in predicting that this bear trend will end above the start of Wave 1: $7250, so that it doesn't break Elliot Wave rules. Also, the chances are it will end at the 786 Fib level ($7650), given that it's a favorite stop point for BTC.

Just look at how close subwave 4 looks like subwave 2. In my past post I said that subwave 4 will look very similar - and they are similar in RSI, candle appearance and wave length. You can't get that level of precision with pattern analysis.

Sure - the price can shoot straight past $7650. It can shoot past the long-term trend line and revisit 6k. But Elliot Wave/Fib predicted 6k, and it predicted 7.2k, so I am betting it's going to predict $7650 too.

If it bounces off $7650 - it's time to consider (if you haven't already) that we have waves 3, 4 and 5 to go - which predicts we should be hitting 10k by the end of Wave 5.