Market Indecision. Looking at Reversion Short.

Hi All, its been awhile, but i am back!

Party looks like its over and could be a good time to bet on the reversal. What's going to happen is probably some consolidation into mean reversion here. It appears that sellers are exhausted on the short term and there are no panic spikes, theres alot of indecision in the market and its apparent with the dwindling volume. This looks like the housing market lol jk anyways-
Signs of trend reversal
• Confirmed MFI + RSI bearish divergence
• Price failing to hold above the 20-w MA
• Test of the 200-W MA
• Momentum rolling over with no panic volume
• Key support approaching ($82k–$85k zone)

I would position for a downside continuation, but NOT chase a short at current levels.
The correct play is a reversion short on a failed bounce.

Going for this
• Entry: 104,000
• Stop: 109,000 (risk = 5,000 per BTC)
• Target 1: 85,000 (reward = 19,000)
• Target 2: 73,000 (reward = 31,000)
• Size: 1 BTC
• You sell 50% at T1 and 50% at T2
Risk to reward to should be just about 5-1
Reward - $25k, Risk 5k

Kyle's checklist
Pattern - Rising Wedge breaking down into a distribution top
Candlesticks - Looks bear, top exhaustion
Trend - Signs of downside reversal
Harmonics - Nothing
Structure - Distribution
Indicators - Bearish divergence, MACD rolling over, stochastic failing at overbought

Now we're going to use CHATGPT to absorb my analysis, and put a model on all the categories i reviewed and implement a score. Heres what comes back
Scoring Scale

+2 = Strong bullish
+1 = Mild bullish
0 = Neutral / no signal
–1 = Mild bearish
–2 = Strong bearish

Weighting Model

Each family contributes differently to predictive strength.
Weights reflect information value in macro BTC cycles.

Category Weight (%)
Classical Patterns 10%
Candlestick / Price Action 10%
Trend / Volatility Systems 15%
Harmonic Patterns 5%
Market Structure (SMC/ICT) 15%
Volume-Based Patterns 15%
Indicator-Based Patterns 15%
Quant & Statistical Patterns 10%
Algorithmic / Regime Patterns 5%
Total 100%

Total Weighted Score
Sum all weighted scores:
–0.15
–0.15
–0.15
0
–0.30
–0.30
–0.30
–0.10
–0.075
——————————————
= –1.525 total score

Final Weighted Probability Summary
Outcome Probability Reason
Bullish Continuation 10–15% Too many higher-timeframe divergences + volume weakness
Neutral Consolidation 25–30% Possible if support holds, but structure still bearish
Bearish Breakdown 55–65% Confluence across 7/9 pattern families points down

Me VS ChatGPT
Agree - its probably going to go down
Disagree - i think its going to consolidate first and go sideways a bit before going down