Can you see it? Markets are governed by fundamentals and psychology. Crypto fundamentals are non-existant, hence it all makes sense, they are fully governed by psychology. Does not matter if we go up or down, it's all the same.
And the exact same people that were in disbelief in the early stages of it going up are now in disbelief and starting to slowly realise the bull market might be over.
First, the shitcoins will go to zero, then the big ones will follow and go very low. Not $3000 Bitcoin, nono, not $2000 Bitcoin, not $1000...
"How bear markets end: 1) worst fundamental cos capitulate 2) broad market capitulates 3) best fundamental cos capitulate. at #altcoins like XRP we‘re closer to 1), maybe 2). You think #bitcoin seen bottom=you believe manipulators keep artificially high or in for surprise BTC"
The thing is, he is wrong about where we are .... Ripple is not at 1 yet...
This crash has not even begun yet! There is much much more downside coming next. It will take way more time, this is only just the beginning. Most people barely even started to realize we are in a bear market.
Everything is the same, it goes up, it goes down, the reactions are the same, in parallel.
Bull market: 1. Early stages = disbelief "nah it won't go up this is a sucker rally" 2. Hope "maybe..." 3. Optimism "Time to get fully invested" 4. Euphoria climax "I am a genius!" (says man from netherlands that sold everything to buy crypto and now lives in the woods with his family) + fools probably buy on leverage.
Bear market: 1. Early stages = disbelief "the weak hands got shaken out, here is my CONSERVATIVE 50.000$ target for 2018" 2. Opposite of hope "maybe..." 3. Pessimism "I better sell before I lose everything" 4. Despair climax "I am an idiot!"
And so, at the very end of the cycle they finally get it right and realise they are idiots...
Know what? I actually prefer my own version to the "official" ones.
Commento
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*** BULL MARKET *** Step 1= Disbelief.
A couple of articles for 01 2016, they interview Bitcoin "believers"/developpers that gave up on it and think it is lost forever. News are bearish and argue the fundamentals that show it has no future
etc just google it. All the "experts" are arguing fundamentals are bad and Bitcoin failed. The herd is clearly bearish. *******************************************************************************************
*** BEAR MARKET *** Step 1 = Disbelief
Do I even need to post anything here? We all have gotten bombarded with messages "this is just a normal pullback road to 10.000.000.000$" "Experts" are saying the fundamentals means Bitcoin CANNOT be in a bubble and bla bla bla.
A nice fund manager took the time to make articles with lots of crypto bull posts, often arguing the fundamentals. All in disbelief. He will not make anymore, but we should ask him to make 1 for each step :) Would be very interesting. I keep getting banned from twitter...zzz
Paying 8000$ a month... This guy is from a rich oil family? Or maybe he is a (professional) trader, lots of traders ran into crypto during the bubble.
I wonder if any pro trader were stupid enough to take loans XD With their companies they get risk managers that make sure they do not do anything crazy, sometimes psychiatrists etc; but when they go trade in their free time with their own money they have to be their own shrink and risk manager, just like the rest of us retail traders. Maybe alot of the pro's would actually be really bad retail trader :p Maybe all of that babysitting made them week, and unable to trade alone :p
"The Netherlands man who sold everything for bitcoin calls it the best decision he ever made — and now he's swarmed by fans who agree"
The guy who dragged his family with him and now lives in the wood, to buy speculative virtual magic coins, calls himself a genius, and the public strongly agrees...
This one is beyond...
This story is one for the books. They shall teach the tale of the Netherlands man that sold his house for Bitcoin and went to live in the woods at the climax of the bubble, for years to come.
I cannot believe so many people do not see how stupid that is, and that we so clearly were into a bubble in the exuberance phase...
Commento
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Brace yourselves, the short squeeze is about to happen in a few days (maybe sunday, maybe before), and after that... the big fall.
I will short at every resistance & be careful, since it could go all the way up to 12.000.
At least we should get 7200, before entering fully the next step of the market cycle and FINALLY exiting complacency (or disbelief in my own market cycle breakdown).
Commento
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I was using linear charts and people were saying I ignore the log chart to make Bitcoin look bad and on linear you could see how much % it went up and all the trendline.
I use the log chart and people say I use the log chart on purpose to make Bitcoin look bad.
Hilarous.
They both look as bad, only difference is when I write the market cycle steps on the log chart they are evenly spaced, but on linear the top takes 80% of the view...
Commento
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This is how crypto believers see market cycles:
When they improve the chart:
Wups wasn't supposed to see that.
Cryptoer market cycle view: a cycle that lasts a few days :D
What do you mean in market cycle downside we always go below optimism? You simply do not understand Blockchain.
Oh ok, typical market cycles do not work with crypto I get it. THEN WHY DO SO MANY OF YOU MONKEYS USE THEM TO TRY AND CONVINCE PEOPLE THAT WAS THE BOTTOM???????????
Crypto "enthusiats" are worse than religious people that cherry pick sentences in their official holy book to justify getting money and starting wars.
Ugh believe me there are enough millionaire idiots that will buy thousands of coins just for the hell of it. Just in case it goes parabolic again. I'm sorry little emotional bear but the world will move towards a digital payment system... that is an absolute fact. Right now btc is very well integrated into thousands of systems and retailers. There are thousands of jobs in this space and even the United states goverment is getting involved at SECURING btc future. I will save this post so that when I am having a bad day or feel really down in the next 5+ years I can look back on this post and smile.
maxty
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where is the dislike button?
Overcast
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I will agree that a market crash of the proportions you speak of will occur, however I personally do not think this is it. Over saturation of the market won’t occur until most of the money that is itching to get in on wall street is already in. As of this writing this has yet to occur. The gold market did not reach over saturation until it was worth tens of trillions of dollars. I see no reason why bitcoin can’t do the same before collapsing. It is also arguable that bitcoin is fundamentally better than gold. Bitcoin is constantly improving, and has the ability to be improved much further. Gold has plateaued fundamentally. You cannot alter the physical properties of gold to improve its ease of storage, its security, or its divisibility. Gold is a physical object, and therefore requires expensive physical infrastructure in most cases to keep it secure. Bitcoin does not. These are just a few of the points I have come across when exploring the comparison between gold and bitcoin. In terms of market awareness/adoption, If you walk into a church, or a stadium, or anywhere that a large crowd of people can be found, and ask those people if they know what gold is, it is probable that at least 95% of them will say yes. If you ask this same group of people if they know what bitcoin is, it is likely that less than half of them will have heard of it before. And in my personal opinion, bitcoins value will continue appreciating until knowledge of bitcoin is common and widespread. It will be at this point, that everyone who could statistically have an investment in bitcoin will already have bought in, and the bubble will be at its peak. That is when I see the collapse happening. Keep in mind that this is my own personal opinion and is not meant in any way to attack, provoke, or prove you wrong. I highly respect your view, as I do see it as a possibility, but will hold my current thesis as being the more probable until I am proven wrong.
lisek15lisek
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Wow you're a total idiot. Go with 100x leverage on your shorts.
MrRenev
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@lisek15lisek, No, I will stick to 50 only. :D
Thank you for the money.
lisek15lisek
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@MrRenev,
Lmao ok. I saved your idiotic post for the future, I like a good laugh. Just dont edit it.