Im no experienced trader, neither advising you to follow my idea.
Based on simple trend lines during the last year of bitcoin chart, the recent growth was just too much, so a correction is expected. According to my idea, that is gonna happen in the next 3 days. We are gonna experience a small rise in the upcoming hours and followed by a sudden drop.
Lots of altcoins are about to "moon" - Etherium is having a rise due to Capser testnet being announced, XRP its still overhyped - and many others are about to follow. Bitcoin dominance keeps going down -slowly- so if no big money enters the game soon enough, then those money have to be taken out of something. Guess what that something else is gonna be?
*drum roll* Yes! Bitcoin!
My target is gonna be 11.1k USD +-2% at around 6/1/18 +-10hrs.
Commento
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Its going up as expected, lets see if it will pass through 15.7k before going down.
Commento
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It seems like its making a nice bull flag on the one hour chart. It has potential to break the old green trend line and get back on track. We will find out in a few hours. Also the whole market cap has a new all time high so we might not see a second drop after all.
Commento
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Seems it didnt get any higher, the initial idea its still valid.
Its seems like it would get back to the old trend line today. Lets see.
Commento
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Alright, i may be overthing this a little, or my maths are way off. OR BOTH ! Heh
Either way, i moved the lowest point possible a little higher (small red circle) and added 2 box entrances to the rally!
Use the grey area if you wanna get back to bitcoin, safe entrance. Use the green one if you are feeling risky, greedy, or paranoid like me !
Commento
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Seems like BTC is recovering. Some good publicity slowly comming in again. So, this idea may never happen or its getting delayed.. I will keep this up for a week or post a new one if something dramatically changes.
Commento
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Alright guys, unfortunately i got all my charts deleted during the weekend i had to start over. SO! I think that BTC got bumped by fake news around 5/1 ( red circle). And the LAST ( hopefully) correction is happening right now. I tried to replicate my old orange line but i dont remember the exact calculations i used ( that makes it approximate). Note that it can still go down to the red one ( not shown in the picture) But i believe that it will go all the way up from there. Good luck.
Commento
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Trade attivo
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If you want to get in, i think this is the last chance!
I think biggest drop will be the 15th based on historical analysis. Today 5th-6th is also gonna be a drop. maybe 10-20% from 15k. So lowest possible 12k. At around the 15th I expect a drop of like 20-30 % from 14k. And it will go to around 10-11k.
Acel
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@PatrickVanDee, I checked tha past history too, up to a year and a little more. Things are not linear so i think that 15th is way too late, latest big dips have even recent time difference. You can see the most recent one, light green one, on the bottom right corner. My lines are a bit messy, but my general guidline is, 1) straight lines are based on old trends ( facts ) 2) doted lines are based on recent and/or old trends ( speculation ).
I have updated the idea after re-calculations and it seems that the lowest point for now is 11.8k. After that, i *hope* for a run till mid to late February.
PatrickVanDee
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@Acel, Take a look at the 15th of jan on 2017, 2016 and 2015. Don't you see something similar every single time at around the 15th :P? I could be wrong tho.
PatrickVanDee
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@PatrickVanDee, It even looks like the same drop is starting. Cuz everytime it starts at around the 1-5th and the lowest point is around the 10-15th. Lemme know what you think.
PatrickVanDee
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@PatrickVanDee, Purely based on history tho. I think it happens because people want to take out BTC and spend it to have lower taxes. And just because a lot of things need to be paid at the start of the year.
Acel
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@PatrickVanDee, Those are the first ones that i saw too, few days after the last dip - at around 27/12. Yes, historically thats what happens.
But 3 days ago, i got more paranoid and i got into a little more math. Unfortunately im new to technical analisis and still learning. I have to learn more about fib levels so i could be more precise, but the numbers that i got while drawing the doted lines seemed pretty familiar...
Remember, its still speculation and based on my math. In the real world its different, there are more parameters that u cant easily take into account. Like news, hype, whales taken money out or placing in etc.
Good luck! :)
PatrickVanDee
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@Acel, Yea im kinda starting out too. I really recommend fibonacci. It just simply follows those lines for some reason ahha
valesh
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@PatrickVanDee, if you heard about market astrophysics (market predictions based on planetary & lunar cycles and transits), you might be surprised to find out that the trend you "discovered" is nothing short of a typical lunar cycle and can be often used to make interesting predictions. So far I have been seeing only positive gains for me using that method TOGETHER with the conventional market analysis that is a "must" in any case. I do expect an interesting development to occur around 16-17th of January (+/- 2-3 days) so FYI.
Acel
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@valesh, is that a good or bad developemet..? I dont follow astrology much - although i did for some short time in my life. Its not a prooven science yet, so there are no "laws".
Thanks for your comment.
Acel
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@valesh, it appears you were right and i almost got it with my first newbie chart. :)