Hello everyone. MERRY CHRISTMAS! HAPPY HOLIDAYS! and I have a chart for you guys. I hope this helps people and stops people from losing money. I had mentioned in a previous chart that if BTC falls below 48K (which it did) I would turn very BEARISH! I had a very good reason for that, and that is because BTC fell below the bull market support band (21W EMA + 20W SMA). BTC IS STILL BELOW this support band and I DO EXPECT MAJOR RESISTANCE HERE and I DO THINK bears are very powerful here and are setting up a NASTY BULL TRAP. DON'T BE A VICTIM. Lets look at the indicators on the chart.
There are MANY MANY youtubers, and other people on social media saying "the bottom is in" and all that good stuff. Everyone points to how it is technically a HIGHER LOW but EVERYONE IS FAILING TO REALIZE THAT BTC FELL BELOW THE BULL MARKET SUPPORT LEVELS. Don't get me wrong, IT DOES look like a bottom however there is SO MUCH RESISTANCE ahead and UNLESS there's some MAJOR CATALYST WHICH BLASTS BTC ABOVE 60K again, then I don't think bulls have enough strength here.
The chart is pretty much self explanatory. Notice how on MARCH 8TH 2020, BTC dropped below the bull market support band (BMSB). It is very similar to the recent DECEMBER 4TH drop! It even played out a similar pattern (shown in the YELLOW OVALS) before jumping back above the BMSB.
Now look at the GREEN OVALS... This is where BTC starts its downtrend. You can see previously BTC fell below the BMSB yet again, then attempted to jump back above BUT GOT REJECTED RESULTING IN A MAJOR DROP! On the RSI, you can see that rejection happened at the 50 level.
BTC IS IN A SIMILAR SITUATION RIGHT NOW! It has fallen below the BMSB and is currently trying to get back above it. NOTICE THAT BTC IS IN A VERY DANGEROUS POSITION ON THE DAILY RSI RIGHT NOW! It is at the 50 level!
Nothing is certain however I do believe in wyckoffian logic and it makes perfect sense here. The "composite man" has SO MANY people right where he wants them! Everyone is distracted. BTC put in a "higher low" so everyone feels comfortable buying in... Like I said, this could end up being a NASTY BULL TRAP! Either way I made this chart just so you can be prepared and understand that a 20K BITCOIN IS ABSOLUTELY STILL IN THE CARDS and very possible!
There are other indications that are in line with this idea! The daily and weekly RSI shows the DECEMBER 4TH drop as a "LOWER LOW" and NOT a "higher low" reflected by price action. This creates BEARISH DIVERGENCE on the RSI. Also BTC could possibly form a very BIG head and shoulders pattern here very soon which would have very low targets depending on how you position the neckline. The Weekly MACD crossed down and looks pretty bad IMO.
This is also in line with my previous BTC chart which I'll leave a link to so you can see even more evidence that a 20K BTC is VERY MUCH POSSIBLE.
Well that's what I have today. Hope everyone is well. I WISH YOU ALL A MERRY CHRISTMAS, and HAPPY HOLIDAYS. Take Care.
* This is NOT financial advice. This is just an idea based off my experience. Please do your own research before investing or trading.*
The reason we had that first green circle was because of our first introduction to a world-wide pandemic. We won’t have the same scare like that again imo.
simon-CS
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Did you forget that COVID was the reason for the dip in March 2020
UnknownUnicorn1506039
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@simonh6 have you been watching the news?
Mboersma0324
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I didn't, however I believe the market as a whole is overvalued and I believe the market is heavily manipulated. BTC was just 10K just over a year ago, and that's just BTC... The rest of the market has seen much bigger gains
AntBoBo
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interesting analysis
bytebyte
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The drop was cause 2020 march covid world wide pandemic
alireza137
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Hi, it was a good analysis, but for now, I see the end of the drop in 46k
Mr00T
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Very nice thanks
BigMitchras
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Let me trust your chart and Sell for 50k then wait and buy 28k Risk taker
Mboersma0324
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@BigMitchras, I hope you did. As of now, The 34-36K area looks like a good "buy" area. Not all your money in 1 buy. I always think it's better to slowly buy in.