In May 2019, when the Bitcoin price was about 8500$, I gave my comment on the question "Would Bitcoin reach 1 000 000$?" for the Russian business TV channel. My point of view was that even with the best fundamental support, we would see 50 000$ for 1 Bitcoin, and maybe even 100 000$ as the highest point. When the price was 8500$, I couldn't find any reasons how the market would reach 1M$ target.
In April 2021, I want to say 2 things: - I was wrong thinking that the highest point for Bitcoin is 100 000$ - I keep staying on my position that 1M$ for 1 Bitcoin is the unreachable target.
If we look at the daily chart, we can see an interesting situation. The price is moving sideways below 60 000$ and buyers can't update the ATH. Why? Where are active buyers and big players? When the price broke 50 000$, it became obvious that the next catchy target should be 100 000$. We can see bullish sentiment in the social media among the crypto audience and news that big players increase the volume of Bitcoin in their portfolios. But how much time we need in order to move back to the bullish trend? We need it as soon as possible because without hype around Bitcoin we will have additional risk to get a trend reversal with the further bearish market. You can tell as much as you want about "to the Moon" but it won't protect you from the situation which we could see in 2018-2019. At that time, when Bitcoin reached 20 000$, we saw the same bullish sentiment in social media. We got the bearish trend and the bottom at 3500$. The crypto market is a bubble and it can drop by 80-90% anytime.
That's why I think in order to continue the uptrend with the main target at 100 000$, we need to break 60 000$ resistance as soon as possible.
We had 3 attempts to pass through 60 000$ resistance and all of them failed. Maybe the 4th will be successful? Who knows! Another fact, which we should take into consideration, is that the price didn't drop below 50 000$. This level can be a good support in the future. If the price bounces from 60 000$ again, we will wait for the reversal signals from SMA50 and this support. The breakout below 50 000$ will open the road toward 42 500$ and SMA200 at 30 000$. But do you believe in such a bearish model?
An alternative option is a sideways movement between 60 000$ resistance and 50 000$ support. If the market needs more time for consolidation before a new run, this option will be in play. For traders, it will be possible to use trading strategies for range markets and trade in both directions, for investors it will give an opportunity to add new long positions at 50 000$.
As for me, I don't trade Bitcoin. I think this coin is too heavy for making a good profit if you are not a big player. I prefer top altcoins and I use Bitcoin as an additional indicator confirming bullish sentiment in the crypto market.
But what about you? What do you think about the future of Bitcoin? Will Bitcoin reach 100 000$ and when? What do you think about Bitcoin for 1M$?
Share your thoughts in the comments, let's discuss.
Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
Commento
⋅
The 4H chart shows us how 60 000$ resistance doesn't allow the price to move upward. That's why we use a breakout as a strong bullish signal. Without the breakout, the price can move back to 50 000$. For this, it needs to break 57 000$ support and SMA200. If 50 000$ is reached, we should wait for reversal setups for buying.
Like you said, there are many (more exciting) options available for the retail investor who is looking for 10x in the near-term. That's not going to happen with Bitcoin.
Institutional and large whales are good with 1x as they start out with a large position. That likely means from here on out we see slower gains, though large re-allocation can cause a temporary flood of selling, the big dips are quickly bought up but only when targets are reached. This should make technical analysis easier to follow. I do think that we will see 80-90k when retail investors start worrying the party is nearing an end. Whales will see this opportunity and buy dips making re-entering with full coins nearly impossible.
watchtrend
⋅
@conradkz,
Sobhan_23
⋅
artem19840910
⋅
or or
SunDanceNess
⋅
If the price less 50k then the pattern will be a double top
quickshoe
⋅
Looking at Total crypto market cap, we see ATH. Same with ETH and strong alt coins. BTC investors are rotating into alts as new investors are getting into BTC. Also, some investors are acquiring alts and using them to accumulate BTC. I don’t think BTC has seen it’s top yet. Not until it’s the subject of every morning news show and every magazine cover... Not until we’re hearing stories about the young billionaires... Not until we’re hearing about families going all in... that’s when we hit the top... just like 2017...
aguakiller
⋅
Can you share with us what are the Altcoins you're trading now?
Kobass
⋅
What about a bear market for the next 2 years? Doean't that look more obvious? Why do you think this is not the top?
DLavrov
⋅
@Kobass, if the buyers can't break 60 000$ and push the price to new highs - yes, we will be able to see a bearish market as an option.
But the breakout will push the price upward and 100 000$ will be a very catchy target before a bearish market.
Kobass
⋅
@DLavrov, when you say 60k, you mean new ath or just over 60k?
Institutional and large whales are good with 1x as they start out with a large position. That likely means from here on out we see slower gains, though large re-allocation can cause a temporary flood of selling, the big dips are quickly bought up but only when targets are reached. This should make technical analysis easier to follow. I do think that we will see 80-90k when retail investors start worrying the party is nearing an end. Whales will see this opportunity and buy dips making re-entering with full coins nearly impossible.