Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
If you have been following me on TradingView for a while, you'll know that I am particularly fond of using multiple methods of chart analysis together, on a macro timeframe. In today's analysis, I revisit the once popular idea that Bitcoin will go to 100K. Is it possible? How do you get to that specific number? Let's break it down and take a look at the chart analysis in more detail.
Firstly, we need to analyze the chart from a macro perspective to determine what market phase / cycle we are currently trading in. We've covered that in detail HERE :
After an in depth study of the Wyckoff Method, it has been established that we currently find ourselves in the accumulation phase. It is important to note that there are multiple shakeouts in this phase before a clear bottom is established. If you want to know more about entering a bottom position, see this educational idea HERE on Ethereum :
After establishing the market phase, as well as what to look for in a potential bottom, we now need to establish bounce zones for the early stages of the new phase - mark up. My two go-to methods of determining possible bounce zones are Fibonacci and support zones / resistance zones from a macro perspective. These are both pulled up on the chart. Remember that there are intermediary supply zones / demand zones that are more evident on lower timeframes such as the daily. But for this analysis, we'll focus on the bigger picture.
Now that we have a strong foundation, we can start to speculate possible targets. Speculating targets is made possible by using the Trend Based Fibonacci Retracement + Trend Based Fibonacci Extension. This is the most reliable method for speculating potential targets. It is historically proven that most notable zones include any .236 , .618 and .786 numbers.
After we have established a strong argument for possible targets, we need to figure out how to get there! Luckily, there is another reliable chart analysis method called the Elliot Wave Theory. More detail on the Elliot Wave Theory and rules HERE:
Elliot Waves in combination with Fibonacci are arguably the most reliable methods to determine a potential long term trade setup. With all of the above said and done, we find that Bitcoin reaches the infamous 100K mark at notable 1.618 Fibonacci Trend Based Extension. Pulled up, is a potential Elliot impulse wave towards the target.
Final Thoughts 💠Like the terrible saying goes, there are many ways to kill a cat. Using trusted methods such as the above, guarantees the user an average of 60% success rate. This is according to Wall Street figures taken over extended time, concluding their most profitable traders have a 68% win rate. So be careful when someone claims to make ridiculous profits or pips. Be realistic and realize that methods are not 100% guaranteed but instead, they have an average win rate of 60%, calculated with mathematical rules such as probability over longer periods of time.
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