BTC - up or down?

12 lug 2023

BTCUSDT sitting at $30500

Market update:
BTC is accumulating, and its looking strong. We will see a breakout to one side or the other within the next 7-12 days I guess. But whenever it happens, and whatever direction it takes, down or up, doesn't matter: alts will suffer.
I am more bullish than bearish and I assume the move will be to the upside. I can imagine btc rising to 35-36k, followed by a selloff, retesting the 31.5k area and then moving sideways between the 32k and the 35/36k. 2 or 3 quick pumps to 38k from there wouldn't surprise me. As soon as btc breaks 41-42k a move to 47k can happen withing hours and will likely get sold as quick as the pump has happened before.
In case BTC dumps below 29.8k we could see a bounce at 29.1k, If not anything is in the cards, it would take a big volume drain tho.
Back to the current situation.
The reason why I don't expect the bigger BTC move immediately is that we haven't seen any huge alt moves yet. The market needs to see money moving from weaker hands to stronger hands before. Whales need to make some money in alts to put it into btc.
There are a few altcoins holding stronger than others. Most of my picks are among them. I am talking about IINJ, TAO, BME:NTX, AATOR and a few more (IAG and TTRAC-BRC20 etc.). Will make a separate post about alts.

If BTC drops below 29k it's hard to say what will happen, it depends on why the price dropped in the first place. If the SEC or another agency fires another torpedo, that could happen, but lately, altcoins have tended to be hit by those cluster bombs.
At this point, I want to point out STX again, which is currently around $0.65. STX is an SEC-approved coin on BTC, and it even rewards stakers in BTC. The team doesn't have to contribute much at all, the price should still rise if word gets around, because there aren't many ways to earn BTC passively.

My actually bullish view of BTC is only affected by one detail: the many euphoric price predictions by institutions or people close to institutions. Every day you hear about 100k, 200k BTC in 2024. This usually happens when the whales want to unload their bags. If true we could also drop to 20k and below as a 50% dump (to 15k) would mean a 2x on a return to 30k and whales only miss that if they see serious buying pressure to the upside.
Keep in mind that a 15k to 30k pump is equivalent to a 30k to 60k surge.

So: The ETF narrative could be a trap. But I am cautiously bullish.