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UDAY_C_Santhakumar
15 mar 2015 07:01

Why USO underformed CL before the crash? 

Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX

Descrizione

First thing you need to understand here would be the underlying of the ETF.
Incase of USO, the underlying is "Future Contract On Wti Crude Future (contract)" THIS IS THE SOLELY THE CULPRIT. Why?

Most of Futures trader may already know this, Some etf traders may not.

Few things to understand here would be
1. Concept of Contango / Backwardation
2. Storage Cost for commodity.

Most of the Commodity has storage cost, that will get priced into the ETF, via futures contract. "Cost of Carry"

Futures in commodity are like options in stocks, but highly leveraged.

Every time the Fund managers, Bump the Contract for USO, you are inherently losing money.

Out of ALL the commodity ETF, GLD(IAU)/Silver is something that carries GOLD Bullion / Silver (more like a GOLD/Silver backed currency).

Ironically, IAU (GOLD / 100 ETF) is possibly named after IOU. "I Owe You' 0.01 Oz Gold / for every IAU ETF shares. ;)

Example of GLD / IAU / GC chart

Notice How closely they trade.

Commento

I can totally see a lot of people interested in buying Crude Oil. Remember this chart, before you do so.

Don't Let the contract cost eat your profit away. Try finding a good Micro Cap Oil Stocks. (Some Used to be Mid Caps are now in Small Caps and Micro Caps). Time your investment entry.

Good Luck
Commenti
derrend
Is it possible to buy crude at spot price and hold it like a stock or is this not possible? I ask because I am not overly familiar with futures :)
UDAY_C_Santhakumar
Well, If You buy June Contract, You have to take delivery of Crude Oil Barrels once the contract expires. Futures are like Options in stocks. In Options you have to request for exercise.
derrend
Right I see. Myself and my wife were discussing buying some oil if it goes low enough but we've never traded anything other than crypto. Sounds like I've got some research to do :)
UDAY_C_Santhakumar
Well, USO could be a good option, if Oil can rally quicker.
rbower
Why would someone be inclined to buy CL1 rather than USO? For long-term Oil investing, would USO be a better choice?
UDAY_C_Santhakumar
Depends on How quick the USO will move. Either way, its risky to park your money in USO for years. That would be the same for UGA / UNG. These ETFs are eaten up by the Storage costs and are never fully invested in the asset classes, Its the same if you invest in CL.. The Find managers move from one contract to another, where the do that to ease the poison. These ETFs are good for a Month or two for Trading every Swing. If you want to park, better find a different asset class. SLV / GLD.

Notice the current Contango / Backwardation in Crude, Everytime the contract jumps to next month, the prices will have a bump up / down.

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