ETHUSD update: All time high made at the 458.96 level (Bitfinex) while the 437 extension was blown through as bullish momentum continues. Based on current market structure, 482 is the next target. And you wonder, when is the best time to buy?
In my previous report I listed levels that I was looking for in order for a possible long. Were any of them reached? The best the market could offer was 400, which was 8 points higher than my closest support which was 392. If YOU were watching closely, there was a double bottom on a 30 minute chart that offered an attractive entry. The second low of that formation occurred at 1 AM EST. I am actually sleeping at that time so I could not update my report in order to let everyone know it was a good time to get in. And this is why I provide perspective and not a signal service.
Since the double bottom occurred at 400, the 392 support could have been used as a good reference point for a stop with 437 as the target. (I wrote about 437 in my previous report). So you had enough information to assess reward/risk along with a formation.
I am writing this to make the less experienced aware that they key to using my analysis is NOT waiting for trade calls, but instead to learn how to think on your own. My analysis provides perspective and levels as the title describes. I keep reading comments about how I don't take any trades. Taking the trades is up to YOU because a trade requires an assessment of risk which is different for everyone.
Please understand as an author, I have a greater responsibility to the community. If I say "buy", a lot of people will buy, and if they lose, I feel partly responsible so my trade calls have to be extremely well selected in order for the risk to be at a level that I feel is low enough for the majority of less experienced traders to take. And after all that, the trade may still not work out, but at least I made every effort to select one that the risk was reasonable in terms of the conditions at the time.
So my message: Do not depend on anyone's trade call, take initiative, assess the risk and take responsibility for your own decisions. If you say, "but I am new, and that is why I am on here, looking for trade calls.", then you will not be successful in the long run if your plan is to blindly follow others.
On to analysis! Based on the current structure, 433 (.382 measured from 392 low) is the nearest support which is very shallow and has a better chance of breaking, but since this market is so strong, it may be a level to consider upon a retest. A more reasonable and likely support is the 417 area which is now the .382 support measured from the 350 low. A retrace into this area, followed by a reversal formation would offer attractive reward/risk since the low 400's can be used as a reference for a stop. And if price retraces further, then the 392 support is the next level I would consider since it is the .382 of the bullish structure measured from the 286 low.
The next target is 482 and is a 2.618 extension projected from the 348 low. Also depending on how far this market retraces, the 461 area can be used as a target as well. With these levels, you have enough information to assemble a swing trade IF the market presents the opportunity (like it had at the 400 level).
In summary, there is probably news out there that is driving this market higher. I do not need to know what it is in order to trade on the short term. The strength is clear, but don't forget, these markets are highly irrational, and often manipulated in ways that are different from traditional markets. There is no reason to be emotional, or feel bad for missing the relentless rally. The great thing about any financial market is opportunity is an unlimited resource because "history repeats itself" (which is a basic tenet of TA). Be flexible, watch for reversals, and most importantly understand your risk. Highs are better to take profit, not initiate positions.
thanks marc! I did get in at 410 and rode it up to your level and exited at 440. Waiting for a pullback before the next move up to 482
quantson
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Thanks for the analysis, Uncle. Much more helpful than calling out prices to us. I respect you shouldering your extra responsibilities and being so introspective/self aware.
Symba
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What a great post Marc! You made me start thinking for myself months ago and couldn't be more grateful. NOBODY should be looking for somebody to tell them when to buy or sell, and if you are not willing to learn the ins and outs of TA it's probably a better idea to sit and watch/learn until you are.
This post in particular was huge for me because I had all the fib levels everybody else was watching but had not updated and measured from the $392 low (talk about fast moving). Anyway, got out with half at 482 and actually got my $484 sell order filled with the other half of my short term. I was looking to dump in mid 370s until you MADE ME THINK!
Will it go higher? Maybe, but I am more than fine with that trade!
Keep up the great TA and educated the masses!
crankycrypto
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Thank you. I am less than 3 months in trading and I love how to pitch it. Yesterday I was selling great buys on this... and I missed a few, WHO THOUGHT IT WOULD BREAK 16% in a 24/hr period... ugh.
But I kept telling myself to NOT be greedy and this is crazy times and unpredictible .. so don't be a big baby and be greatful for what I got.
At the same time I now put 1 Buy order and 1 Sell order 1 Support and Resistant line further than I think it will go. LOL I hope to start doing even further out with an extra position two.
Also I try not to EVER put my holding funds for buy orders in USD, but I have it in BTC or LTC. I figure having it in LTC or BTC still has a 1% bad day is better than USD a zero.
DOES anyone have a good tracking software? I am on 3 different exchanges and following my profits seems like guessing.
I really want to see a history line up of
1) The % return/loss on each trade
2) the $ Net of return /loss of each trade
3) Same 2 attributes but on OPEN orders
4) Current Portfolio Value
5) Portfolio Value including Open Trades
And Day by day and even average hour % and $ returns. And % and $ per trade returns.
I have tried about a dozen websites and 2 free demos for journals and trackers... none seem to have the details I want.
OOOOO yeah.. what about API access or atleast a complete upload feature. I DON"T WANT TO HAND ENTER each trade AND the history... ugh
THanks KEEP IT UP!!!
franabenza
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@crankycrypto, I am also interested in a professional respond for that
luddeke15
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@crankycrypto, The blockfolio app is great. you have to manually enter your trades which can sometimes be a little laborious, but it tracks your portfolio well.
mcbw_
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cointracking.info has what you're looking for, though it's not free
ShaleIntel
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$600 is the clear target after breaking $370
imocchi
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still looking bullish.. do you think it can go to 520-ish before correction?
YouDontKnowJack
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But also, thanks for your perspectives. Great unbiased approach.