ETHUSD Update: The 300 level will signal if this market is going to resume bullish momentum, or not. The market determines where it is going to go and if it decides to present a bullish breakout, then it will be just a matter of time for a long setup that offers better reward/risk.
The retest of the 300 level is very interesting because on the bigger picture, this structure can be one giant double top. In my opinion this is a very high risk level for any new long swing trades. I have been writing about the lack of attractive reward/risk at these levels even though there have been signs of strength.
As I have written about before, if this market is going to demonstrate consistent strength, then not only will it have to PROOVE itself by breaking 300, but it will have to push to a significant new high (301 or 302 does not count) and when it pulls back, the retrace should be somewhere above the 280s (the resistance zone should act as a new support). In that particular scenario, I would be interested in a long if the reversal formations confirmed the entry. The main part of that scenario is that a new high is established, NOT BEFORE.
If this market fails and one confirmation of that would be a break of the 280 support (.382 of current bullish swing), then I will stay flat until price can make its way back to the 269 to 262 support (.618 of recent bullish swing), the 250 support area, or the 237 to 219 support that I have been writing about in previous reports.
Just as a refresher, when I evaluate these markets, I am just defining scenarios based on the current price structure so that I can prepare myself for whichever way the MARKET chooses to go. In this case, if it breaks out above 300, I know for sure I am staying out. I don't care how high it goes. the risk is outside the parameters of my trading plan. If it fails, then I have projected support levels that I will be waiting for to see 1. If price can reach any of them, and 2. The kind of price action we get at those levels (like the double bottom that occurred at 250).
So for those who are expecting the answer to the question: Which way is it going? It appears to be going higher at the moment, but higher in what context is what people do not realize is more important. Higher in the context of facing a double top resistance, which means the chance of a fake out is high. At the same time BTC is right in the middle of a resistance zone as well, and needs to follow through with a push above 4000 in order to keep this market going.
In summary. since the extreme low that occurred in the coin markets recently, they have been following the BTC price action as it works its way back up in an attempt to break above 4000 again. The 300 level for this market is one that will either make or break the potential for higher prices. A breakout above will need to be followed up with supportive price structures (that is a much better time to buy in terms of reward/risk based on my plan), while a failed breakout will establish a broad double top which can lead prices back to the 260s, or even lower. Either way, I have my plan, and I am just waiting for the market to choose.
@Jour, you're welcome. Glad you find my analysis helpful.
Toto_
⋅
Thx Marc
MarcPMarkets
⋅
@Toto_, you're welcome. Glad you find my analysis helpful.
bingbang199
⋅
Hello,
Since the beginning of the fall, you never say it is the right time to invest, but all the opportunities miss ...
EtherSwinger
⋅
@bingbang199, I'm sure I read somewhere that Marc had.
yeddula
⋅
@bingbang199, I feel the same. Everytime I felt like investing I fear his words of may be fall.
MoeProblems
⋅
@yeddula, @bingbang199 Missed opportunities? to be fair there are at least a couple of times he's said you can go in if you want, but that he won't because the risk is too great. True, he has not recommended any good times to invest since the dip, obviously because he has not seen any good opportunity to invest. I've seen lots of posters on here give poor advice on what seems to be a whim, sometimes getting lucky and other times way off the mark. What I like about @MarcPMarkets is he is not gambling here, he is looking for an opportunity where he is very confident that he will make a profit. That to me is a good investment.
If you want to invest, buy and hodl. You'll be fine pending massive unforeseen problems with the tech. But if you want to trade this is not a bad place to be looking. And by all means, no one's forcing you to do anything, these are just ideas people are throwing out.
EtherSwinger
⋅
@MoeProblems, Agree!
Marc is simply helping us understand the situation, gives his perspective on price actions, and most importantly (for me) educate new traders. Every trade is risky. You analyze the situation and take the risk
MarcPMarkets
⋅
@EtherSwinger, exactly right. Opportunities may appear that eventually work out, but at the time, did not offer attractive risk/reward. I would rather stay flat, until the risk/rewards makes sense according to MY plan. That is not YOUR plan. If the risk is acceptable to you, then you take the trade. Just because I choose to stay flat does not mean you have to.