GOLD (MGC) 4H — Bearish structure, waiting for full macro alignment
Daily structure is bearish: CHoCH at 4395.8, then clean BoS continuation down to the last LL at 3980.8. Bias stays short while price holds below 4351 (LH of the last bearish leg). A body close above 4351 would flip to a bullish MSS.
Macro read: real yields (DFII10) and nominal yields across the curve are rising — supportive of short. DXY (US Dollar Index) is flat/neutral, not yet confirming. Per the compass rule, both must align: yields yes, dollar not yet.
COT (as of Jul 14): the classic gold setup holds — Non-Commercials net long, Commercials net short. This week specs trimmed longs (-8,083) and added shorts (+1,161), while Commercials added longs (+20,075). A small shift in sentiment that leans slightly bearish, not a structural reversal.
Week ahead: light on US data — no CPI, PCE, FOMC or NFP. Main risk windows are Wed UK CPI, Thu ECB (European Central Bank, 14:15–14:45 CET) which can move DXY via EUR, and Fri Flash PMIs. Gold may stay range-bound without a US catalyst.
Plan: short only becomes high-conviction once DXY breaks up alongside yields. On a pullback, OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) short zone sits at 4160–4321. Targets: sell-side liquidity at 3955.3, then October low at 3901.4 (Daily OB).
No trade without structure + macro alignment.
Aquile Reali — Be Stable. Be Strong.
Daily structure is bearish: CHoCH at 4395.8, then clean BoS continuation down to the last LL at 3980.8. Bias stays short while price holds below 4351 (LH of the last bearish leg). A body close above 4351 would flip to a bullish MSS.
Macro read: real yields (DFII10) and nominal yields across the curve are rising — supportive of short. DXY (US Dollar Index) is flat/neutral, not yet confirming. Per the compass rule, both must align: yields yes, dollar not yet.
COT (as of Jul 14): the classic gold setup holds — Non-Commercials net long, Commercials net short. This week specs trimmed longs (-8,083) and added shorts (+1,161), while Commercials added longs (+20,075). A small shift in sentiment that leans slightly bearish, not a structural reversal.
Week ahead: light on US data — no CPI, PCE, FOMC or NFP. Main risk windows are Wed UK CPI, Thu ECB (European Central Bank, 14:15–14:45 CET) which can move DXY via EUR, and Fri Flash PMIs. Gold may stay range-bound without a US catalyst.
Plan: short only becomes high-conviction once DXY breaks up alongside yields. On a pullback, OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) short zone sits at 4160–4321. Targets: sell-side liquidity at 3955.3, then October low at 3901.4 (Daily OB).
No trade without structure + macro alignment.
Aquile Reali — Be Stable. Be Strong.
AQUILE REALI – Educational tools by giua64
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AQUILE REALI – Educational tools by giua64
Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni e le pubblicazioni non sono intese come, e non costituiscono, consulenza o raccomandazioni finanziarie, di investimento, di trading o di altro tipo fornite o approvate da TradingView. Per ulteriori informazioni, consultare i Termini di utilizzo.