US 100 Fact VS Fiction Trading; How We Called The Move..
So I recently called the US100 via the skilling ticker short in various posts, streams and videos aswell as other global index and futures markets. This was just before the recent enormous fall which we can reflect on;
Simply put, if you use price action as a mechanism for anticipating future moves and stop obsessing about every reason for a move under the sun (that may not even be true) things get more probable and they get clearer.
Using the above and early entry confirmation, mixed with using factual evidence like previous long term PA levels I made the judgement to short just before we fell. After all we had seen it happen before at the same price level off the back of a sustained market rally after covid. All the buy-side-bias brought the market up so far before people start to consider getting short and exiting all their longs for gains.
Did I foresee the exact market sentiment / news event that would bring it down? No. Did I need to? Also no.
I just need to have the factual knowledge that a long rise is always followed by a fall to some degree. This is simply how markets work and will always work, a transition from buyers into sellers via market mood. Often, the bigger the rise the larger the retracement inherently.
From there it is simply trade management based on your approach, be it scalp/intraday/swing etc. Focus on your plan and all of its aspects for entry and exit and maximise gains on the fall.
So in short, trade facts and what you can see. It's a lot healthier.
Simply put, if you use price action as a mechanism for anticipating future moves and stop obsessing about every reason for a move under the sun (that may not even be true) things get more probable and they get clearer.
Using the above and early entry confirmation, mixed with using factual evidence like previous long term PA levels I made the judgement to short just before we fell. After all we had seen it happen before at the same price level off the back of a sustained market rally after covid. All the buy-side-bias brought the market up so far before people start to consider getting short and exiting all their longs for gains.
Did I foresee the exact market sentiment / news event that would bring it down? No. Did I need to? Also no.
I just need to have the factual knowledge that a long rise is always followed by a fall to some degree. This is simply how markets work and will always work, a transition from buyers into sellers via market mood. Often, the bigger the rise the larger the retracement inherently.
From there it is simply trade management based on your approach, be it scalp/intraday/swing etc. Focus on your plan and all of its aspects for entry and exit and maximise gains on the fall.
So in short, trade facts and what you can see. It's a lot healthier.
Nota
Anticipating further falls in the market to long term key PA zones.Nota
Great idea now to lock in gains via trailing stop and/or total exit + Entry on pops back up.Nota
Holding off major longs into Monday.Nota
Use the weekend to plan and check over entries for new longs and exits for shorts taken, if you are investor/long term swing trading / locking in gains.Nota
No news monday. Looking ahead in the week for extended moves.Nota
Larger push needed for new re shorts.Nota
Still needing a higher move RE re entry.Nota
Look at second level of 1HR / 4hr resistance.Nota
Looking to scale re shortNota
Ideally 15400.Nota
Hold off any longs.Nota
Preparing for minor long entries on big fall.Nota
Large rises need for RE short entries.Nota
Hold of any new longs until far lower for investor trend.Nota
Check over 12M chart for very long term fall case. It’s there..!Nota
No enormous news scheduled, latter stages likely to help.Nota
Re shorting still higher as per stream this AM.Nota
Maintaining short bias.Nota
Exit for gainsNota
Still short, (reshort)Nota
Out of shorts. Hold off for new longs.Nota
Exit any longs and re short nearer 15100Nota
Shorts applicable similar to other indexesNota
Back up to long term short entries.
Free Pro Multi Asset Trading Guide:
bit.ly/learnttm
Free Discord Secret Server:
discord.gg/tXAcxFVCJU
Posts Not financial advice.
bit.ly/learnttm
Free Discord Secret Server:
discord.gg/tXAcxFVCJU
Posts Not financial advice.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Free Pro Multi Asset Trading Guide:
bit.ly/learnttm
Free Discord Secret Server:
discord.gg/tXAcxFVCJU
Posts Not financial advice.
bit.ly/learnttm
Free Discord Secret Server:
discord.gg/tXAcxFVCJU
Posts Not financial advice.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.