Double top is more likely, with new high. US stimulus will bring S&P500 above 4000. Some US money will come to rupees very soon. It would not be wise to short Nifty these days. Should wait at least one week.
hitendravasudeo
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The marking are jut possibilities and not trade. Bottom line is price direction key in near term to short term. As the price movement pan out as possibility ok otherwise we move with the price trend. Perception are just to explore the likely behavior. At any time we would have 2-3 possibilities and as trend behaves. we be in the direction. Price is king and price is leading indicator. It always a check to all pattern and behaviors. In spite of the correction, market still in higher top and higher bottom mode. The current correction is or was the retracement of the rise from 13666 to 15246. The last peak and breakout point of 14765 was tested along with retracement to 38.2%. On the immediate front, a pullback of the fall from 15430 to 14639 is on the way. On 23/02 market harami was formed after large bearish candle. It was the largest candle of the fall since the peak of 15430. On Monday it did not breakout the low on friday 22/02 low. 25/02 harami. therefore high of harami become the trail stop loss for those short. It had to be revised to it. A swing bottom formed as a result of the higher low and higher on 24/02. A breakout and close above 15430 will be key to continue the overall higher top and higher bottom formation.
What ever mark drawing is not expectation but a thought process which remains at the back of the mind. Trend and behaviour are in co-ordination we think about it. First objective is to test and see if 15430 is getting crossed. Any lower top and swing lower top can lead to pressure back on the downside.
Lets see how market pan out. Need a follow up rise on 26/02 with high low and higher high with bullish or positive candle for continuation of up move.
Incidentally , overall bullish as long as 13666 is not violated. On breakout above 15430 is witnessed then 14639 will be key higher bottom
thank you
silver_78
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@hitendravasudeo, trend without drivers is not a trend:-) within 7 trading days Nifty50 will hit 15500, then back to 14800 and up again to 15850-16000 and only after these moves it will fall to 12800-13000, perhaps, without any pullbacks:-)
hitendravasudeo
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@silver_78, these are jut one off message here and not daily and regulars updates. trend can be defined various ways. Higher top and higher bottom formation. within that higher low and higher high. It can be impulsion based up trend which does not have overlapping. etc. If you look at monthly chart the situation is different. All these are part of intra-day and intra-week correction in overall up trend. every one has own ways to understand market behavior. So very difficult for every one to get one agreement. Generally don't like to paint picture of swings. Prefer to limit subjective analysis to minimum. Various remain in mind and based on market behavior. need to look at it.