Silver (SLV): Multi-Year Cup & Handle Setup

12 nov

Silver appears to be repeating the same large-scale institutional “Cup and Handle” structure that played out almost perfectly on Gold.
The difference is that in SLV (iShares Silver Trust), the chart history is shorter, so the full formation is not as clearly visible — but if we reference the historical silver chart (since 1802), the pattern becomes unmistakable.

That long-term chart shows a massive multi-decade rounded base — the cup — and now price has already touched the upper boundary, effectively activating the pattern.

🧠 Technical Context
On the long-term silver chart, the handle represents the multi-year consolidation we’ve seen since the 2011 peak.
In SLV, this structure is compressed, but the correlation with physical silver remains ~99%, since the fund is backed by over 90% physical silver holdings.

This makes SLV an ideal instrument for expressing long-term silver exposure — it tracks spot silver almost tick-for-tick, while providing the liquidity and accessibility of an ETF.

Technically, silver has already tested the upper rim of the cup, confirming that the pattern is active.
This breakout will likely be followed by a short-term consolidation (the final part of the handle) before the market enters what could become a multi-year rally phase.

Based on historical fractals and volume structure, the first major pullback is expected toward the $35–25 zone, which corresponds to the previous 4th-wave cluster — a classic accumulation area in Elliott terms.

I’ll be looking to accumulate aggressively in the $35–30 range, scaling in gradually as price approaches those levels.

🎯 Trade Plan
Instrument: SLV (iShares Silver Trust ETF)
Correlation to Spot Silver: ~99%

• Primary Support Zone (Accumulation): $25 – $35
  
• Handle Breakout Level: around $50
  
• Long-Term Target: $800+ (silver spot equivalent)
  
• Stop-Loss: per individual risk management
  
• Time Horizon: 5+ years
  

Once silver completes its consolidation and breaks above $50, the measured move of the Cup and Handle suggests a multi-hundred percent rally that could unfold over the next decade.
The breakout will likely be accompanied by rising institutional volume and strong follow-through momentum.

🧭 Strategic View
I trade silver exclusively through SLV, as it offers the most direct and reliable exposure to the underlying metal.
The fund’s near-perfect correlation with spot silver makes it ideal for implementing long-term accumulation strategies without the operational complexities of futures or CFDs.
This will be one of my core positions for the coming decade.
After the expected correction into the $30–35 range, I plan to build a large position, possibly hedged later on, and hold through the full bullish cycle.
Silver’s technical structure, macro fundamentals, and historical analogs all point toward a potential generational rally once this base completes.
This is the setup I’m positioning for — patiently, systematically, and with conviction.

Summary

• Long-term “Cup and Handle” formation now confirmed
  
• Final correction expected before the next secular rally
  
• SLV offers near-1:1 tracking with physical silver
  
• Accumulation zone: $35–25
  
• Target: $800+ over the next decade
  

13 nov

Trade attivo

🌀 Update: Post-Wave 1 Development and Current Scenarios

After the completion of the first major wave, I initially anticipated a sharper and deeper Wave 2 correction.
However, the market developed only a single zigzag pattern — a shallow retracement of roughly 15%, instead of the typical 38–62% range expected for a second wave.
From that shallow correction, price quickly rebounded and has now approached the previous Wave 1 high.

This is important because, structurally, in a zigzag, Wave B cannot exceed 79% of Wave A — yet in this case, we’ve already seen a clear violation of that limit.
That means we are no longer dealing with a simple zigzag, but rather a flat-type correction.
From here, four main scenarios emerge.

1️⃣ Impulse Continuation — Start of Wave 3

The first possible scenario is the direct continuation of the uptrend — the beginning of Wave 3.
This would imply a breakout above the current high, potentially targeting the $50–60 range, followed by a pullback toward $48–50 to retest the breakout zone before continuation.

However, this scenario has two structural concerns:

• Wave 2 is too short in time and too shallow in depth.
  
• The rhythm of the market cycle doesn’t yet suggest a completed corrective phase.
  

Therefore, while this scenario is possible, I consider it less likely and will not position aggressively for it at this stage.

2️⃣ Regular Flat — the Classical Double Top

The second, and most probable, outcome is a Regular Flat correction — often perceived visually as a Double Top.
In this case, silver would retest the prior high, without making a new high, and then decline.
However, this drop will likely not reach the deep retracement levels of $30–35 that were initially projected.
Instead, price could correct only toward the $41–42 area — retesting the local low — before the next major upward impulse begins.

This would form a very balanced, classical Regular Flat structure, consistent with long-term accumulation behavior.

3️⃣ Running Flat

The third scenario is a Running Flat, where Wave B slightly exceeds the prior high — possibly reaching $50–55 — before reversing lower.
The key distinction here is that Wave C in a Running Flat stays above the Wave A low, meaning the correction remains relatively shallow, likely around $46–47, or even back toward $48.
This would be a higher-level consolidation before a strong continuation higher.

4️⃣ Expanding Flat

Finally, an Expanding Flat remains possible.
In this setup, silver could overshoot significantly — rallying to $55–60, then dropping sharply below the Wave A low, possibly toward the low $40s.
While this would produce a wider range correction, the structure would still fit within a larger bullish framework.

📊 Additional Technical Observation — 200-Day Moving Average Distance

Another important factor that supports the flat correction hypothesis is the current distance from the 200-day moving average.
On the daily chart, silver has moved unusually far above its 200-day MA — the widest separation we’ve seen in recent cycles.

Historically, every time silver has stretched this far from its long-term mean, the market invariably corrected or consolidated back toward it.
That pattern has repeated consistently — each major extension was followed either by a retracement or a multi-week sideways phase.

Right now, the gap is exceptionally large, which suggests the market may need a pause or consolidation to “cool off” and allow the moving average to catch up.

So, while my broader outlook remains firmly bullish, this overextension is a sign that a flat or sideways correction is the most likely short-term outcome.
In such a phase, Smart Money will likely use the consolidation to reload positions, preparing for the next major upward leg.

📈 Strategic Outlook and Positioning

At this point, I lean toward the Regular Flat scenario as the most probable outcome.
That means price could fail to make a new high, reverse downward toward ~$42, and then form the foundation for a strong, sustained impulse higher.

From a trading perspective, my approach is defensive and flexible:

• I will open a moderate-sized long position and immediately hedge it with protective PUT options.
  
• If price breaks higher — excellent, the long position will capture that upside.
  
• If price reverses lower — the PUT will gain value, offsetting potential losses.
  Once the correction completes, I will close the hedge, potentially flip into CALLs, and start scaling into a larger core position.
  

🧭 Core View — Still Bullish, Just a Shallower Path

In fact, nothing has changed in my broader outlook.
I remain strongly bullish on silver over the long term.
The only difference is that I expected a deeper corrective wave, a proper retracement that would allow for re-entry at lower prices.
But as it stands, the market may not grant that opportunity.

If we do see a pullback, it will likely be limited to the $40–42 area — below that, the structure itself would begin to break down.
Therefore, any move into that zone will be viewed as a final re-entry opportunity before the next major rally leg begins.

The long-term structure, fundamentals, and positioning logic remain fully intact — the path may simply be shallower, but the destination unchanged.

Summary of Updated Outlook

• Wave 2 correction turned out shallow (≈15%), not the expected deep retracement
  
• Zigzag structure invalidated → transition to flat-type correction
  
• Four possible structures: Impulse, Regular Flat, Running Flat, Expanding Flat
  
• MA200 distance supports a likely flat/sideways phase before continuation
  
• Base case: Regular Flat, correction toward ~$42 before a strong new impulse
  
• Strategy: Hedged accumulation, maintaining exposure while managing downside
  
• Long-term view: unchanged bullish bias — any dip toward $40–42 is a final buy zone