Reasonably confident these wave counts are accurate. It's more art than science. Look at Mark Rivest's counts , he is even more optimistic than I am:
We've got a triple combo 5-V-v wave forming off the shallow 4th wave last week. My Fibo projection for the last stage of the rally is 2937, but it could blow through that easily, won't be surprised to see it over 2950, although I really doubt it will get above 3 standard deviations from channel trend midline. I'll be taking a small but significant (perhaps 20%) long position to see if I can ride the tiger one last time. Lot of risk up in the nosebleed seats, be careful!
The Three Drives pattern is rare so I've struggled to make EW fit but this pattern fits perfectly and calls for a 1.618 Fibo at 2937 on index. I expect to get there Wednesday.
I usually post about US 30 but it will follow this and the Gartley Fibo for that I published already is 26268 with a B-D ratio of 1.618 and X-D 0.887.
After that I'm closing longs and look for the reversal pivot signals. The downside after a monster rally like this is potentially huge and could break down 5-8% in a final leg C of the zig-zag correction that began in Jan.
Most traders and investors will be shocked and amazed because they think the correction is over. The fat lady hasn't sung yet!
Note to self: Next time you write about Fan Principle Projection, maybe consider taking a position, doh! Been bullfighting the whole way like a stubborn donkey.
The only feeling worse than being right and then betting against yourself is watching a profit turn to loss. Last week: I got both those loving feelings!
The trend is your friend. Although Sand P is trading two full standard deviations above midchannel (Modified Schiff fork brings it out nicely), and is high above 20D MA, the trend and sentiment still say higher.
Could break at any time, but I reckon there are a couple of bullish days left in it and quite possibly an exhaustion gap up on last day (pretty sure last gap was an initiation gap for the 3rd of this 5th wave, it was not yet retraced... but it will be!).
Ill be looking for the usual signs of topping out and the brief consolidation we typically get before the decline, will post as I see them.
As always, this isn't investment advice, it's just an interesting idea for education only; you trade at your own risk, Good luck!
Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto
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I'm afraid we are not in a fourth going on fifth wave but what appears to be an ABC or WXY, and A/W is getting pretty ugly. If so, the B/X reactionary wave could be vigorous, might retest highs. EW analysis will break down in highly volatile, emotionally charged markets- highly unpredictable, extremely risky. Safest bet now to take no trades until this thing declares itself. Preserve your trading capital!
Be cautious folks this market is pretty squirrley right now i see H&S in the ES Futures we might get a right shoulder and pushback if rally fails.
Anything can happen now!
serepok
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@DaddySawbucks, Futures' forming double head, trend is not clear.
DaddySawbucks
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@serepok, Yes now reversed overnight looks choppy. UNclear to be sure.
lkdahleh
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Excellent thinking bro, you rock! Keep it coming plz, you always give me more hope :-)
DaddySawbucks
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@lkdahleh, It's getting ugly out there and risk grows parabolically now. Considering short entry. Be careful-good luck!
lkdahleh
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@DaddySawbucks, Im short at 2892. First target is 2874, and second 2856. I hope im right this time...
DaddySawbucks
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@lkdahleh, I think you might be but the dammed thing is so unpredicty I'm waiting to see if they can get it back up around 2900 today, else will short Friday.
lkdahleh
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@DaddySawbucks, Im using a technical indicator program that has a 98% success rate and gives accurate signals and involves more than one indicator(SMA, RSI, BB, Volumes, pivot points, support, resistance, etc...), which signaled yesterday to sell S&P & Nasdaq at the close, but no signal was fired for Dow. However, if the weakness strengthens, i think a fresh signal will fire to sell dow today. Interestingly, this system didnt work well in the last month because i think the markets were manipulated in a strange fashion, but once this manipulation gets its hands off of the market, the system should act perfectly again...
lkdahleh
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@DaddySawbucks, Im out of S&P at first target 2874. Waiting for dow to give a sell signal. A daily close below 25895 will likely give a sell signal, get ready.
lkdahleh
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@DaddySawbucks, If Dow closes below 25890 today, sell for at least 500-700 points drop in the next couple of days....
Anything can happen now!