$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 1 to Dec 5, 2025

🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 1 to Dec 5, 2025 🔮

🌍 Market-Moving Headlines

🏭 PMI and ISM reset the growth story: Monday and Wednesday bring manufacturing and services surveys that will steer the “soft landing versus slowdown” debate into year end.

🎤 Powell in prime time: Monday night remarks from the Fed Chair are the key policy event of the week and can move yields and risk right into the Asia open.

🧾 Backlog inflation and income data: Friday’s delayed September PCE, income, and spending finally land, giving a cleaner read on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

📉 Jobs and ADP midweek: ADP and weekly claims keep traders focused on labor cooling versus resilience ahead of the next full employment report.

📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
MONDAY, DEC 1

⏰ 9 45 AM
• S and P Final United States Manufacturing PMI (Nov) — prior 51.9

⏰ 10 00 AM
• ISM Manufacturing (Nov)

⏰ 8 00 PM
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks

TUESDAY, DEC 2

⏰ 10 00 AM
• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies

⏰ TBA
• Auto Sales (Nov) — around 16.4 million expected

WEDNESDAY, DEC 3

⏰ 8 15 AM
• ADP Employment (Nov) — expected around 42,000

⏰ 8 30 AM
• Import Price Index (Sept, delayed)
• Import Price Index excluding fuel (Sept, delayed)

⏰ 9 45 AM
• S and P Final United States Services PMI (Nov)

⏰ 10 00 AM
• ISM Services (Nov)

THURSDAY, DEC 4

⏰ 8 30 AM
• Initial Jobless Claims (week of Nov 29)
• United States Trade Deficit (Oct)

⏰ 12 00 PM
• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks

FRIDAY, DEC 5 — PCE Backlog Day

⏰ 8 30 AM
• Personal Income (Sept, delayed report)
• Personal Spending (Sept, delayed report)
• PCE Price Index (Sept, delayed report)
• Core PCE Price Index (Sept, delayed report)
• PCE and Core PCE year over year (Fed’s preferred inflation gauges)

⏰ 10 00 AM
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary (Dec) — around 51.0

⏰ 3 00 PM
• Consumer Credit (Oct) — prior roughly 13.1 billion

⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.

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