Macroeconomic backdrop:
Fed uncertainty: Hawkish Fed speak as of this morning and post-Fed interest rate decision overall, the market’s confidence in continuing rate cuts is fading.
Labour market cracks: Ongoing job-cut headlines from large-caps hint at weakness, and continued signs of a cooling job market could weigh on consumer sentiment.
Momentum factor losing strength: High-beta speculative names such as
IONQ, 
OKLO, 
JOBY, and 
KTOS have begun to roll over before the weakness in 
SPY - often an early sign that the broader momentum is weakening.
Technicals:
The rally failed to sustain a breakout above the $685 resistance zone, showing exhaustion near prior swing highs.
Volume divergence and flattening short-term moving averages support the idea that upside momentum is waning.
If macro sentiment stays negative, the next logical retracement target sits near the $642 Fib support, aligning with prior consolidation levels.
Stop-loss: $692 - just above the all-time high, to protect against a renewed momentum leg higher.
Thesis:
After an extended move with minimal pullback, SPY looks vulnerable to a short-term correction. Macro indecision, fading momentum, and sector-wide complacency all point to a market that could start pricing in overvaluation relative to fundamentals.
Fed uncertainty: Hawkish Fed speak as of this morning and post-Fed interest rate decision overall, the market’s confidence in continuing rate cuts is fading.
Labour market cracks: Ongoing job-cut headlines from large-caps hint at weakness, and continued signs of a cooling job market could weigh on consumer sentiment.
Momentum factor losing strength: High-beta speculative names such as
IONQ, OKLO, JOBY, and KTOS have begun to roll over before the weakness in SPY - often an early sign that the broader momentum is weakening.Technicals:
The rally failed to sustain a breakout above the $685 resistance zone, showing exhaustion near prior swing highs.
Volume divergence and flattening short-term moving averages support the idea that upside momentum is waning.
If macro sentiment stays negative, the next logical retracement target sits near the $642 Fib support, aligning with prior consolidation levels.
Stop-loss: $692 - just above the all-time high, to protect against a renewed momentum leg higher.
Thesis:
After an extended move with minimal pullback, SPY looks vulnerable to a short-term correction. Macro indecision, fading momentum, and sector-wide complacency all point to a market that could start pricing in overvaluation relative to fundamentals.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.