A final leg lower cooking in yields...
Here tracking a 5th and final leg lower in US yields. The selloff since November 2018 has looked impulsive in nature, since we marked a 4th wave the bounce from the latest lows, the bounce has met the ABC corrective target at 2.141%. We are also capped below the 38.2% and the 50MA for those trading the 'tactical rebound into Fed'. We 'know' the price wont run higher than here without struggling in the congestion.
The risk to my thesis is that we enter into major chop over Summer after the 4th wave complex triangle. The level to watch for a break to the upside is 2.215% which will damage the confidence in this sell-off.
To put simply, tracking for a top around current levels before resuming the 5th and final wave... expect some oscillation before continuing towards the downside.
The risk to my thesis is that we enter into major chop over Summer after the 4th wave complex triangle. The level to watch for a break to the upside is 2.215% which will damage the confidence in this sell-off.
To put simply, tracking for a top around current levels before resuming the 5th and final wave... expect some oscillation before continuing towards the downside.
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
