It is one thing to enter during Bull markets, and another thing to enter when you suspect that there is a Trend change.
The latter is more difficult by it's nature, as you may still very well be into the current trend, thus making the risk much higher. Therefore, one needs to have more confirmation before jumping in, as we are trading against the main current.
The USDCAD pair is in such a condition. As I said weeks ago (ckeck my older charts), our target area was 34 $ and we have reached it. Now we have a wonderful ABC formation (which is a very potent pattern) and we are hanging at the tip of the major 4th wave (check previous charts). This means that we are looking at a Trend change. Now lets list the facts
1- At daily chart, we have an obvious ABC pattern down from wave 3. This brings us to the end of 4th major wave.
2- The price is resting at a large support zone (consisting of weekly,daily and hourly support cluster which can be seen on my chart as dotted lines. Red dotted line is daily, purple dotted line is hourly etc.)
3- First indications of Trend change was the trend channel breakout yesterday
4-We have positive japanese candle stick patterns at higher timeframes such as daily and weekly.
5- Also don't forget the positive divergence readings at higher Time frames
So now we know that we are about to see a trend change, but when shall we enter with minimum risk. There is still no major trend change pattern observed. It is may be in the making. I can see a possible Head and Shoulders or a double bottom, which are not there yet. So in my opinion, for a long term LONG commitment in this pair, we shall wait for some more confirmation. Here I give you one possible scenario. Currently we are at a Resistance (hourly in strength) zone and the price may come back to 1.32-1.33 zone, which is a 50% retracement from the current point. At this point there are 3 reasons to consider long entry. 1-An hourly support zone (green box). 2- 50% retrace from previous peak (which is the current position) 3- This point could be very well the right shoulder of an H&S formation.
Again timing is very important for Entry and it is even more so when you are trying to enter against the main trend. The arrows on the chart above show this possible scenario and where to enter with better confidence, of course if this scenario plays out to be correct. Good Trades.
The latter is more difficult by it's nature, as you may still very well be into the current trend, thus making the risk much higher. Therefore, one needs to have more confirmation before jumping in, as we are trading against the main current.
The USDCAD pair is in such a condition. As I said weeks ago (ckeck my older charts), our target area was 34 $ and we have reached it. Now we have a wonderful ABC formation (which is a very potent pattern) and we are hanging at the tip of the major 4th wave (check previous charts). This means that we are looking at a Trend change. Now lets list the facts
1- At daily chart, we have an obvious ABC pattern down from wave 3. This brings us to the end of 4th major wave.
2- The price is resting at a large support zone (consisting of weekly,daily and hourly support cluster which can be seen on my chart as dotted lines. Red dotted line is daily, purple dotted line is hourly etc.)
3- First indications of Trend change was the trend channel breakout yesterday
4-We have positive japanese candle stick patterns at higher timeframes such as daily and weekly.
5- Also don't forget the positive divergence readings at higher Time frames
So now we know that we are about to see a trend change, but when shall we enter with minimum risk. There is still no major trend change pattern observed. It is may be in the making. I can see a possible Head and Shoulders or a double bottom, which are not there yet. So in my opinion, for a long term LONG commitment in this pair, we shall wait for some more confirmation. Here I give you one possible scenario. Currently we are at a Resistance (hourly in strength) zone and the price may come back to 1.32-1.33 zone, which is a 50% retracement from the current point. At this point there are 3 reasons to consider long entry. 1-An hourly support zone (green box). 2- 50% retrace from previous peak (which is the current position) 3- This point could be very well the right shoulder of an H&S formation.
Again timing is very important for Entry and it is even more so when you are trying to enter against the main trend. The arrows on the chart above show this possible scenario and where to enter with better confidence, of course if this scenario plays out to be correct. Good Trades.
Commento:
USDCAD UPDATE below. 5 wave structure completed at potent resistance zone. Very difficult to pierce through above 1.34 at this current position. A retrace back to the position indicated in the update will probably constitute the 2nd shoulder of a H&S formation, making it a good candidate point for a long term USDCAD LONG Entry position.