JULY 5TH 2660 PART 16, STATISTICALLY ALIVE AND LATE ENTRY DRAFT
By 10:33 AM ET, 6/19, supposedly 1 day ahead of entry day, I've eliminated all likely routes AND ALL UNLIKELY ROUTES to fit July 5th high schedule. Why July 5th? Simple, this is because that's the window allowed for by intermediate to long term trends combined. They only stay "in rally position for the period leading up to this. That also means that the last day the low can come in is 6/20 because the RALLY MUST BEGIN ON 6/21. Why? Just time limits, BECAUSE IT HAS TO END ON 7/5.
1) with that aside, the first question is, why do it?
2) because I finish what I start
3) second question how "alive" is this?
4) we have 37 hours and change to make 2 tops 50
5) AND ALSO MOVE BACK DOWN TO 2295-2305 AREA
6) that means that we are down to 1 in 500 or 1000 of this working out
7) but I am still holding out because the fundamentals are there
8) gold bull thesis is sound
9) but the TECHNICALS ONLY HAVE 37 HOURS LEFT
10) for a high in July
11) not making this high still has gold in a bull market
12) BUT A SUPER LONG AND STRETCHED OUT AND BORING ONE
13) or maybe it sets up double top in October
14) and gold dies end of year
15) with that said let's get this started
1) with that aside, the first question is, why do it?
2) because I finish what I start
3) second question how "alive" is this?
4) we have 37 hours and change to make 2 tops 50
5) AND ALSO MOVE BACK DOWN TO 2295-2305 AREA
6) that means that we are down to 1 in 500 or 1000 of this working out
7) but I am still holding out because the fundamentals are there
8) gold bull thesis is sound
9) but the TECHNICALS ONLY HAVE 37 HOURS LEFT
10) for a high in July
11) not making this high still has gold in a bull market
12) BUT A SUPER LONG AND STRETCHED OUT AND BORING ONE
13) or maybe it sets up double top in October
14) and gold dies end of year
15) with that said let's get this started
Nota
11:05 AM ET, JUST SO WE ARE CLEAR, TO GET FROM 2300 TO 2660 IN 2 WEEKS OR 10 TRADING DAYS:Nota
1) 11:08 AM 2326.XX, THE ONE INTERESTING THING?2) so intermediate to long to very long term trends are in peak position
3) if short term and medium term deliver this move next 36 hours
4) what you have is a PICTURE PERFECT 360 PT RALLY
5) with July 4th a major U.S. holiday
6) that leaves less than 10 trading days
7) so there's not that many "different looks" for this rally
8) bc of time constraint...
9) so it should be smooth sailing the entire way now
10) WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHECKDOWN FROM ABOVE DOWN TO 2450 HIGH
Nota
11) meaning once we get to 2480 and higher12) at some point, THERE MUST BE A CHECK DOWN TO 2450
Nota
11:54 PM ET 36 HOURS LEFT AND 2329.XXa) the clock for this move:
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b) is 12 hoursc) so with 36 hours left to complete this up and down move
d) the next 12 must hit 2350
e) first 6 hours meet first box
g) following 6 hours meet second box
h) technically speaking ON THIS MOVE ALONE
i) it is favorite outright vs entire field by a wide margin
j) that is to say IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY TECHNICAL PROBLEMS
k) so NOT GETTING THERE... is not a technical problem
l) it would be a fundamental one that I am not on to
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m) it''s a pretty straight forward move n) so if it works,see you in 12 hours
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p) not sure if second top is higher q) like this :
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r) in which case regular "m TOP"Nota
s) NO.. way too early to say thatt) base case is higher top
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12:24 more detail: Nota
1) more rugged look 2) let's go!
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13) here's the close up for the next 11 hours: Nota
14) its going to zig zag under 233815) until 10:30 or so then move for 2350 resistance around midnight
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16) 2:53, extended futures closed 3:30 so we only lose 2.5 hours with the one hour break added makes 3.5 hours17) this just keeps worse and worse
Nota
3:10 PM ET, STATUS UPDATE1) still alive?
2) yes, by the skin of your teeth
3) we are going to these two tops
4) but I have been positive about this rally considering the situation ...
5) but honestly I am not positive as I was 3 hours ago
6) why because this move just got harder by what happened the last 30 minutes
7) before market closed early
8) here:
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9) in chart above blue routes eliminated10) red route is now base case
11) it's unknowable what happens in that box
12) we need THE TOP OF THAT BOX TO HOLD THURSDAY IN NY
13) but still alive nonetheless
14) this has the effect of pushing the high into END OF THURSDAY
15) and the check down comes Friday
16) with the low coming Friday morning
17) technically this still means the rally "starts on 6/21"
18) but we won't "know" until Monday and Tuesday
19) because at that point, the move becomes completely vertical to make time
20) it's still statistically live
Nota
THIS POST IS DEAD, HERE IS LAST POSSIBLE OUTCOME FOR JUNE RALLY JULY TOP:
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.