XAUUSD 8H
1. Wyckoff Phases and Structural Analysis
The chart is divided into classic Wyckoff Phases—Phase A, Phase B, Phase C, and Phase D—suggesting a potential accumulation or reaccumulation pattern.
Phase A - Reaccumulation: Early stage where preliminary support (PSY) and automatic reaction (AR) are identified, hinting at the beginning of a potential reaccumulation zone.
Phase B - Distribution: This phase includes various swing highs and lows, establishing a broader range, and showing signs of a Secondary Test (ST) in distribution. There's also a Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B, indicating initial distribution signs, but later phases suggest this could be a false distribution.
Phase C - Spring or Test: Typical in Wyckoff theory, this is the phase where the price tests liquidity by pushing lower before reaccumulating. The pattern indicates a possible shakeout to trap sellers.
Phase D - Reaccumulation: In this phase, the Last Point of Support (LPS) has been marked, suggesting that price is preparing to move upwards out of the range, but careful monitoring is needed for confirmation.
2. Elliott Wave Structure
The wave labeling indicates a series of impulsive and corrective waves, with the current high marked as Wave (5) in a diagonal formation.
Diagonal Wave 5: The peak around $2,823.37 and $2,851.21 (1.236 extension) marks the end of a potential diagonal fifth wave, hinting at a possible completion of the trend.
Corrective Waves (1), (2): After reaching Wave (5), the chart indicates corrective waves in orange lines, suggesting that the price could be entering a multi-wave correction phase to retest previous support zones.
3. Key Price Levels and Fibonacci Extensions
Volume Divergence by Wave 5 (1.236 Extension): The chart highlights volume divergence at $2,803.59 and the diagonal completion around $2,823.37, signaling potential exhaustion and a likely reversal or deeper pullback.
Invalidation Levels: Notably, $2,733.24 is labeled as the Invalidation Level for further bullish progression. If price falls below this, the wave structure and bullish continuation are at risk.
Support and Resistance Zones:
POC (Point of Control): Around $2,594.99 is a significant level where trading volume concentrated, acting as support in Phase D of reaccumulation.
PWL (Previous Week Low) and PMH (Previous Month High): These levels serve as short-term reference points for retracement and potential support or resistance.
4. Trading Traps and Manipulation Zones
Creek: The chart marks an area as "Creek," which Wyckoff practitioners recognize as a resistance zone within the reaccumulation phase that needs to be broken decisively for further upside.
SOW (Sign of Weakness) in Phase B: This area is marked to indicate possible price manipulation; it’s designed to induce selling pressure and trap retail traders, only for the price to potentially rebound.
Buy Side Liquidity (BSL): Buy-side liquidity zones are marked at the peaks, suggesting these areas may serve as potential reversal zones due to liquidity grabbing, especially in Phase B.
5. Strategic Points of Interest and Future Outlook
Phase C – Final Test or “Spring”: This phase acts as a last point of support before a more confirmed move higher, assuming the reaccumulation thesis holds. The test in Phase C indicates a potential turning point for another bullish run.
Resistance and Support Lines for Distribution Phases:
Resistance Line at the BC Distribution level might act as an overhead ceiling if prices try to push higher.
Support Line at AR Distribution: If prices fall below this line, it could invalidate the reaccumulation structure and trigger a larger downtrend.
Projection Path: Orange lines map out a potential future wave structure, indicating anticipated moves within the corrective phases, with likely touchpoints at POC (1D) and other key levels. This shows a bearish bias in the short-term as price tests lower levels in a corrective structure.
6. Volume and Market Sentiment Indicators
The presence of volume divergence, especially at key highs in Wave 5, suggests that buying momentum may be waning.
High-Volume Nodes: These levels may serve as potential support or resistance zones where institutional interest is present, and they often act as magnets for price action.
Summary
This chart indicates a complex structure where XAU/USD may be transitioning from a bullish trend into a possible distribution and correction phase, as seen in the Wyckoff reaccumulation/distribution phases. Key levels around $2,594.99 (POC) and $2,733.24 (invalidation) are essential for determining the validity of the reaccumulation thesis. If the price breaks significantly below these zones, it may signal the end of the bullish trend. The setup shows a mixed outlook, with potential for both upward continuation (if reaccumulation confirms) or deeper correction if distribution pressure holds.
The chart is divided into classic Wyckoff Phases—Phase A, Phase B, Phase C, and Phase D—suggesting a potential accumulation or reaccumulation pattern.
Phase A - Reaccumulation: Early stage where preliminary support (PSY) and automatic reaction (AR) are identified, hinting at the beginning of a potential reaccumulation zone.
Phase B - Distribution: This phase includes various swing highs and lows, establishing a broader range, and showing signs of a Secondary Test (ST) in distribution. There's also a Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B, indicating initial distribution signs, but later phases suggest this could be a false distribution.
Phase C - Spring or Test: Typical in Wyckoff theory, this is the phase where the price tests liquidity by pushing lower before reaccumulating. The pattern indicates a possible shakeout to trap sellers.
Phase D - Reaccumulation: In this phase, the Last Point of Support (LPS) has been marked, suggesting that price is preparing to move upwards out of the range, but careful monitoring is needed for confirmation.
2. Elliott Wave Structure
The wave labeling indicates a series of impulsive and corrective waves, with the current high marked as Wave (5) in a diagonal formation.
Diagonal Wave 5: The peak around $2,823.37 and $2,851.21 (1.236 extension) marks the end of a potential diagonal fifth wave, hinting at a possible completion of the trend.
Corrective Waves (1), (2): After reaching Wave (5), the chart indicates corrective waves in orange lines, suggesting that the price could be entering a multi-wave correction phase to retest previous support zones.
3. Key Price Levels and Fibonacci Extensions
Volume Divergence by Wave 5 (1.236 Extension): The chart highlights volume divergence at $2,803.59 and the diagonal completion around $2,823.37, signaling potential exhaustion and a likely reversal or deeper pullback.
Invalidation Levels: Notably, $2,733.24 is labeled as the Invalidation Level for further bullish progression. If price falls below this, the wave structure and bullish continuation are at risk.
Support and Resistance Zones:
POC (Point of Control): Around $2,594.99 is a significant level where trading volume concentrated, acting as support in Phase D of reaccumulation.
PWL (Previous Week Low) and PMH (Previous Month High): These levels serve as short-term reference points for retracement and potential support or resistance.
4. Trading Traps and Manipulation Zones
Creek: The chart marks an area as "Creek," which Wyckoff practitioners recognize as a resistance zone within the reaccumulation phase that needs to be broken decisively for further upside.
SOW (Sign of Weakness) in Phase B: This area is marked to indicate possible price manipulation; it’s designed to induce selling pressure and trap retail traders, only for the price to potentially rebound.
Buy Side Liquidity (BSL): Buy-side liquidity zones are marked at the peaks, suggesting these areas may serve as potential reversal zones due to liquidity grabbing, especially in Phase B.
5. Strategic Points of Interest and Future Outlook
Phase C – Final Test or “Spring”: This phase acts as a last point of support before a more confirmed move higher, assuming the reaccumulation thesis holds. The test in Phase C indicates a potential turning point for another bullish run.
Resistance and Support Lines for Distribution Phases:
Resistance Line at the BC Distribution level might act as an overhead ceiling if prices try to push higher.
Support Line at AR Distribution: If prices fall below this line, it could invalidate the reaccumulation structure and trigger a larger downtrend.
Projection Path: Orange lines map out a potential future wave structure, indicating anticipated moves within the corrective phases, with likely touchpoints at POC (1D) and other key levels. This shows a bearish bias in the short-term as price tests lower levels in a corrective structure.
6. Volume and Market Sentiment Indicators
The presence of volume divergence, especially at key highs in Wave 5, suggests that buying momentum may be waning.
High-Volume Nodes: These levels may serve as potential support or resistance zones where institutional interest is present, and they often act as magnets for price action.
Summary
This chart indicates a complex structure where XAU/USD may be transitioning from a bullish trend into a possible distribution and correction phase, as seen in the Wyckoff reaccumulation/distribution phases. Key levels around $2,594.99 (POC) and $2,733.24 (invalidation) are essential for determining the validity of the reaccumulation thesis. If the price breaks significantly below these zones, it may signal the end of the bullish trend. The setup shows a mixed outlook, with potential for both upward continuation (if reaccumulation confirms) or deeper correction if distribution pressure holds.
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.