JULY 5TH 2680, DRAFT 25, EXPLOSION COMING TUESDAY
On Friday, we first eliminated DRAFT 24 (which is map for DRAFT 23). After that we used DRAFT 21 and eliminated both 21 & 22. The signal for 2640-2720 has been flashing for a month, with only 10 trading days to go ( but 9 minus July 4th), price is still coiling in setup mode. This coiling should (with caveat that this can explode ANY TIME NOW) in the following manner:
1) if trends twist to "max coil", price will sideways to 2330 again
2) in 36 hours or by TUESDAY MORNING
3) in which the the coil will hit breaking point
4) and price will move up 350 points in 10 days
5) of which only 8.5 are business days
6) BUT ONLY 7.5 ARE TRADING DAYS BC OF JULY 4TH
7) with two weeks left, in chart above:
a) this week has been super detailed for accuracy
b) may need update Thursday to manage daily expectations
c) other wise THE FOUR BOXES ARE HIGH VALUE TARGETS
d) because even though this is a giant move for a short time
e) the in between zone from Thursday to Thursday
f) is a giant sideways to zone that can easily f with your trading like this:
g) continuing in chart above
h) so the best approach is to bo buy and hold
i) being aware of THE 70 PT CHECK DOWN in between
j) for 350 points in essentially 7.5 trading days...
k) that's pretty limited 2-way vol
1) if trends twist to "max coil", price will sideways to 2330 again
2) in 36 hours or by TUESDAY MORNING
3) in which the the coil will hit breaking point
4) and price will move up 350 points in 10 days
5) of which only 8.5 are business days
6) BUT ONLY 7.5 ARE TRADING DAYS BC OF JULY 4TH
7) with two weeks left, in chart above:
a) this week has been super detailed for accuracy
b) may need update Thursday to manage daily expectations
c) other wise THE FOUR BOXES ARE HIGH VALUE TARGETS
d) because even though this is a giant move for a short time
e) the in between zone from Thursday to Thursday
f) is a giant sideways to zone that can easily f with your trading like this:
g) continuing in chart above
h) so the best approach is to bo buy and hold
i) being aware of THE 70 PT CHECK DOWN in between
j) for 350 points in essentially 7.5 trading days...
k) that's pretty limited 2-way vol
Nota
6/22, 12:01 AM ET, HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY:1) Thurdsday evening I was DRAFT 21 (where we left off last, and has the smoothest rally)
2) Thursday night I posted DRAFT 22 ( same as 21, but slower and more zigzag)
3) if you replay both of them, they both caught the move down BUT 5 HOURS TOO EARLY
4) so at 5:55 AM yesterday (or 18 hours ago) I published DRAFT 24 (which is detailed version of DRAFT 23)
5) keep in mind that we are on Friday 2 weeks from the top
6) DRAFT 24 skips the checkdown and more up early
7) WHICH WAS FAVORED WHEN I SAID ALL IN
8) BUT I ALSO I WAS WAITING FOR 2354
9) for a better price, but also for strong retest before launch
10) so at 2351, I WAS ALREADY CALLING FOR 2295 (which is DRAFT 21)
Nota
11) the reason I want the 2295 check down is that it releases the 2-way vol 12) so we get 2 smooth rallies with only a a 50 pt reversal in between
13) for this DRAFT, which is nice starting Tuesday and runs to Sunday
14) but there is a long SIDEWAYS TO UP ZIG ZAG
15) but I take what I can get, NOT WHAT I WANT
Nota
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16) that said, if you have a problem with over trading 17) here's what that looks like on daily bars (chart above)
18) so if you are not use to risk THE BEST ZONE
19) IS THIS TUESDAY 3 AM TO WEDNESDAY AT 1 PM
20) the longest run wit minimal volatility
21) if that amount of vol still makes you uncomfortable (a couple of 15 pt swings)
22) just ignore this and move on
Nota
23) this is it, there's ONE DRAFT NOW 24) may need one update on Thurs or Friday for the zig zag run
Nota
25) from this trend setup, I feel a war coming on 26) it's very similar to trend setup PRIOR TO UKRAINE
27) I am not saying a war will break out
28) BUT IF A WAR IN ASIA OR MIDDLE EAST BREAKS ON TUESDAY...
29) proves TRENDS ANTICIPATE MAJOR NEWS EVENTS
Nota
30) "proves again", because it's already been provenNota
31) I am already all in and my stop is 230932) if you didn't bought yesterday and didn't sell
33) you will be fine by late Tuesday
34) more than fine on Wednesday
Nota
35) if you are not in right now36) buy Sunday open
37) if you want to wait for Tuesday check down
38) it may no look the same by late Monday
39) bc we are so coiled already
40) it could be one step up like this:
Nota
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41) but this is where I stop "extrapolating updates" 42) at least until 2525
43) WHY?
44) IT WILL HURT MORE THAN HELP from here out
Nota
45) I don't have a recommendation on strike expiration etc...46) because I own a series of different strikes and expiration
47) each serving a different purpose
Nota
6/22, SATURDAY, 1:46 PM, WHAT I CAN PROVE MATHEMATICALLY:Nota
Nota
Nota
2:14 PM TO SUM IT UP:1) after Sunday open is 2335-2340
2) then mini double bottom
3) Monday afternoon should be at 2367-2372 again
4) THEN ANOTHER RUG PULL TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE 2330
5) THEN 170 STRAIGHT TO 2500 VERY EARLY THURSDAY
6) THEN FIRST REACTION TO 2500/2505 IS CHECK TO PREVIOUS ALL TIME HIGH
7) which is 2450
8) that much strong
9) I also know that the reaction to 2450 will also be up strong
10) which put us at 2525-ish end of Friday
11) the following SUN-MON-TUE-WED is HARD AF
Nota
12) NO FRIDAY CAN DO 254013) so like this
Nota
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14) so in chart above, after 2525-2540 ...15) is a check BETWEEN 2450 AND 2500, which is about 2475
16) we will call Friday high at 2332
17) which means at 2330-2335 early Tuesday it should be
18) 2500, 2450, 2532, 2475 either by Sunday night
Nota
19) or very early following Monday 20) followed by a run to 2550 by end of Monday
Nota
6/23, 1:10 PM, 4 HOURS AHEAD OF SUNDAY OPEN'1) this draft has over corrected for the drop
2) there's no way to truly know
3) here's the difference:
Nota
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4) in chart above, dark blue is how far I got from previous chart above5) in terms of "proofing the spike"
6) but when proofing "the lead-in"
7) as I stated somewhere above, the next move could be a "step up"
8) and really should be
9) so one more draft to include both outcomes
10) the difference is, do we launch Monday evening
11) or down we launch Tuesday evening
12) my call is Monday
Nota
SO SCRAP THIS POST AND USE DRAFT 26:
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