Today is an important day so I will post a daily summary where we are. 1. We broke the daily descending channel's trendline (blue) and we are holding the breakout by today's close. 2. We have the swing - as we broke above yesterday's high- and the swing was not erased. 3. The target price counted from the triangle (purple line) was reached exactly. That's important : the chart patterns are working so we can count on them in the future also. 4. RSI left overbought : the daily cycle low is confirmed by this indicator. 5. Due to my cycle count yesterday we were at day 45. Very late in the daily cycle. Yesterday was the DCL. We must have at least 3-4 days of bounce - depending on NFP data-. If the data is good gold migh turn down into the panic selling stage. If the number is not so good gold could rally more. Or can print a hanging man , or a hammer. ( I will post these scenarios on Thursday night to prepare everybody how to trade NFP on Friday) 4. Since February we have tried to break down 1210$ 6 times (green boxes) : the breakdown failed. There is no point to start to rally from here again up to 1400$. First we need to break down 1210$ enter to the panic stage. Make everyone believe that the bear is back and we are heading to 1000$. And then will start the rally up to 1400$.
So tomorrow all the Asian and Japan swing traders, technical traders will be buying. As we broke below 1210$ but bounced almost immediately we have a beartrap below 1210$. The trapped shorts - who shorted gold after Yellen's speech - tomorrow must face with the reality : They are in the wrong direction again. They will be forced to stop their short positions. So all these buying forces will be on the gold market. Plus: if the Euro starts to rally and the USD is turning down from the trendline we will have really strong bounce on Thursday and Friday.
So tomorrow I'm waiting for a same big marubozu day as today.
P.S.: I have a feeling that tomorrow or Thursday something will happen what will push up gold price a lot.
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4. RSI left ***oversold*** : the daily cycle low is confirmed by this indicator.
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50 EMA was holding in the night
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100 EMA under siege again. We are going to break up soon. EurUsd is printing a double botom...
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This is a fake move in gold now:
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Gold should rally also...
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Try to hold the lines. Banks are pushing down the goldprice. We are going to break up.
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The beatrapped shorts are adding to the positions as the "bear flag" broke down. THere will be a beautiful short squeeze above 1220.
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I think they are ready. Those who are not short now are sitting in cash. If I'm right we see a complete reversal now.
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I hope it's clear for everyone what happened today. Smartmoney broke down the hourly trendline. It was an artificial bear flag. Guys, only retail traders are giving short into a breakdown on the 2nd day of a possible daily cycle, after a swing... The reversal was caused by the banks who were greedily buying back the positions what retail traders were selling.
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EurUsd is printing a DCL , and DXY (US Dollar Index is topping) It seems to me that the NFP data will be weak. The dollar could print its DCL on Friday or Monday. Gold will have that pop we are waiting for...
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I want to see how big will be today's bounce - no question there will be a bounce. If it's big enough I might be entering a xauusd short or a DUST long. Today will be the last day to enter DUST before NFP data. If we have a big down day- maybe before the close- I will buy DUST. The same for GDX,GDXJ, NUGT: Big up day is a reason to sell.
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We will break the 100 EMA now...
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ECB press conference in 8 minutes. That's why the big movement in DXY, EurUsd, and Gold
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Hopefully Draghi disappoints the market. And EurUsd can soar
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Brexit will make enough panic. If I was Draghi I would strengthen the Euro...
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Plan is unchanged. Waiting for the bounce.I don't see anything wrong here
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It's starting to look like a raising triangle. Though the upper line is not horizontal because of the whipsaw around the 100 EMA.
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I'm NOT going to open DUST before the close. And I don't suggest miners to open before the close also. Smartmoney was very careful before tomorrow. What I see that there is divergence between the miners and gold. It seems some players positioned in longs in the miners today. I might open a very small long position in XAUUSD in the night launching the Metal trade 2. 25 or 50 ounces....
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shinsky
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People, he will provide an update when he can and I think he's provide an ample amount of updates already... if you keep posting about what to do next, it means you're risking too much capital if you can't stomach some volatility.
chartwatchers
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Shinsky is true. This is not the trade to go all in.
I have a long now on my personal account in gold (XAUUSD) but only around 10% is the margin impact.
I didn't open this long in the Metal trade as you saw. The Metal trade in cash because I'm waiting for the opportunities.
You Don't have to be always in a position.
Muser
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Beautiful work Arpi, thank you so much for your time and sharing
DanielAnthony
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dear Mr Arpi, i see you have talent at trading, mostly your analysis can predict the upcoming trend, it help me a ton. Good job!
chartwatchers
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Don't forget: smartmoney is analyzing the NFP numbers today.
They have it on their desks already.
isaac312
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NFP would be bad cause Verizon strike, then what we should do????????????
MoFXSignals
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Thanks..Chartwatchers. It is always pleasure analysing your charts. I really Love them. I am new to XAUUSD Trading. Can you please tell me if it is good to Go LONG till 1238 Range or Should I just wait and SHORT from 1238 Range...your advise will be much appreciated.
chartwatchers
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Just wait for the good short opportunity. A good enter for the longs was at 1200 or 1205 yesterday.
MoFXSignals
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This is where I got bit confused " If it's big enough I might be entering a xauusd short or a DUST long" - Please if you don't mind can you clarify this. If it is big enough - why dont you prefer LONG Here? And You mentioned about Going Long on DUST? - Sorry for my ignorance. I am a newbie in GOLD Trading.
MC2016
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DUST is a bearish EFT on Gold, so a decent rise (bounce) in gold will see a similar fall in DUST. It could therefore be a good time to buy DUST when that happens ahead of the then anticipated further bigger falls in Gold.