5500 DRAFT 7-5, 2425 RUNAWAY TOP & 2265 RUG-PULL MANIPULATION?
Introduction - With both pride and humility but pure anticipation, I present you my life's work summarized in one day's price action. DRAFT 7-5 is the latest of a series that attempts to accurately map gold's heroic route to 5500 (due November 2025) with respect to both price and time. Since nailing the 1810 low in October 2023, this proprietary "fractal regression trend mapping" methodology has:
1) absolutely crushed the move from 1810 to the first 2140 in December 2023,
2) wondered in the desert for 10 weeks searching for "the breakout setup",
3) forecast 2000 back to 2150 (by 03/08) BEFORE ANYONE ELSE and I have the evidence,
4) despite 2 weeks too early for target 2320, the experts didn't even see 2300 until last week,
5) and is about to bring you what this analyst believes "maybe the call of year",
6) that is explosive move to 2425 followed by heart-crushing descent to 2265,
7) ending with recovery to 2330 by NY close, all within 24 hours of trading.
Details - From DRAFT 7-4, Thursday night saw bears overstepping to 2265 and bulls heroically responded with another drive to 2295. NFP rug-pull reaction trapped the bears at 2280 and price closed 2329.xx - and specifically as requested to complete this setup - within half a point of day's high and simultaneously ALL TIME HIGH. The totality of breakdown of every available trend data point from the hourly to historical data from August 1971's American withdrawal from the gold standard points to this explosive move to 2425 in next seven hours of trading. Within an hour of London's open, bears out of the UK will monkey hammer this rally all the way down to 2265 and may force you to ask why is London ALWAYS DOING THIS to a gold rally? They can call it profit taking if they want, but they have been "profit-taking" basically every day since 1810. In the humbled opinion of this analyst, that is not "profit-taking" and is simply just too much co-incidence that London is also headquarters of the LBMA.
1) absolutely crushed the move from 1810 to the first 2140 in December 2023,
2) wondered in the desert for 10 weeks searching for "the breakout setup",
3) forecast 2000 back to 2150 (by 03/08) BEFORE ANYONE ELSE and I have the evidence,
4) despite 2 weeks too early for target 2320, the experts didn't even see 2300 until last week,
5) and is about to bring you what this analyst believes "maybe the call of year",
6) that is explosive move to 2425 followed by heart-crushing descent to 2265,
7) ending with recovery to 2330 by NY close, all within 24 hours of trading.
Details - From DRAFT 7-4, Thursday night saw bears overstepping to 2265 and bulls heroically responded with another drive to 2295. NFP rug-pull reaction trapped the bears at 2280 and price closed 2329.xx - and specifically as requested to complete this setup - within half a point of day's high and simultaneously ALL TIME HIGH. The totality of breakdown of every available trend data point from the hourly to historical data from August 1971's American withdrawal from the gold standard points to this explosive move to 2425 in next seven hours of trading. Within an hour of London's open, bears out of the UK will monkey hammer this rally all the way down to 2265 and may force you to ask why is London ALWAYS DOING THIS to a gold rally? They can call it profit taking if they want, but they have been "profit-taking" basically every day since 1810. In the humbled opinion of this analyst, that is not "profit-taking" and is simply just too much co-incidence that London is also headquarters of the LBMA.
Nota
04/06, 10:08 AM ET, Notes:1) first, replay this one DRAFT 6-2 because it's hard to say it's going to do this:
Nota
2) so the numbers are calling for 2425 and rug pull3) we have not "really tested" 2200 on the intermediate time frame
4) I just don't see how you go higher without testing 2200 again
5) BUT WHAT WE DON'T KNOW IS THIS...
6) so let's say we round trip 2425 to 2275 tomorrow
7) if we close 2330, WE MAY HAVE one more 2560 high for the next week
8) but we don't close well, remember same pattern as first hit of 2140:
Nota
Nota
9) this is the nature of repeating fractals in a nut shell10) gold has chosen this overall pattern and will repeat this pattern once or twice more
11) with the second time being tomorrow
12) THERE'S ONE MORE THING
Nota
13) a couple days ago, I posted 2115 emergency bc of strange price action out of the UK at 3 AM ET14) I explained this but some people just don't get it
15) for this cycle, the selling driver has been 3 AM ET(NY time) which is one hour after London opens
16) which means London dictates the selling cycle
17) this is why I have "counter manipulation signal" to guard against 100-200 pt rug pulls
18) it has not come ... YET!
19) EXHIBIT A:
Nota
20) the mechanics of this move IS SO EERILY CLOSE TO DECEMBER 202321) as opposed to FEBRUARY 2022, bc in that case we get this:
Nota
Nota
23) for chart above: see that box?24) it has "a more convex" base leading in as opposed to DECEMBER 2023 AND NOW:
Nota
25) here are all 3: Nota
26) when writing the introduction I went with my first call 27) which is NY CLOSE 2330
28) but I AM NOT SURE HOW TO READ THIS RIGHT
29) hence those are two incoming outcomes for next week
30) either we get continuous retracing to 2200 (bc when are we testing that anyway?)
31) and then filling out a triangle
32) or we do a move from 2022 "one more high) and then even more retracing
Nota
33) they both make sense man... you have to see the numbers 34) but again this topping is so eerily similar to December
35) strategy is same as before, long going up short going down
36) that is total wrap for Saturday
37) get some rest for Sunday-Monday
38) there's a lot you can make here in 24 hours
39) moves like this don't come a lot AND IT'S SO HARD TO PREPARE FOR
40) but we HAVE EVERY LITTLE DETAIL NOW
41) including that close within half a point of day's high AND NEW ALL TIME HIGH
42) and I learned one more lesson Thurs-Fri just now
43) that's it's NOT READY UNTIL IT IS 100% READY, 90% is just a maybe
44) this time it's 100% ready
Nota
04/06 11 AM ET - you know what's weird? a) where I'm from, people say that you don't choose your profession
b) your profession chooses you
c) I have contemplated that for a long time
d) but if this work chooses me, it needs to let me know soon
e) I am really tired of waiting for an "explosive gold market"
f) it's been a good run, but remember that we hit 1920 intra-day high on 09/06/2011
g) that is almost 4600 days ago, 4596 to be exact, and yes I counted leap years
h) on the longer scale compared to other things, not exactly impressive
Nota
i) and I can't stress THIS POINT ENOUGH OVER AND OVERj) 2350 is the 44-year trend line
k) it took us four tries three and a half YEARS to break the 14 year trend line
l) by that logic ... we can go sideways 12 more years before breaking 2350
m) AND THAT WOULD BE NORMAL
n) does that make sense?
o) 44 years is longer than I've been alive and my oldest kid is 17
p) so when you have these break through setups and they don't follow through
q) if we fail at 2350 and you think we try again soon
r) you don't know what think you know...
s) but yes, we have EVERYTHING WE NEED to blast through it
Nota
t) so that why part of me doesn't want to do it anymoreu) in 12 years I'm gonna be 50-something....
v) no... not waiting THAT long
Nota
4/6 THIS IS CRITICAL: WAIT FOR MY SIGNAL TO SHORT AT 2425a) now that I see it coming
b) I need disprove it's not going past that on some out-of-control 1980 style move
c) I don't think it is doing that
d) but that's why I have DISPROVE IT FIRST
Nota
1:08 PM ET... e) it's the top...
f) I get it now
g) I understand the move afterwards too, and why it needs to be 2425
h) just REMEMBER this:
i) if we nail the next 3 moves, that is 2425-2265 AND THE 2330 close
j) you will never forget what we do here in the following 10 days
Nota
2:33 PM ET, There's a reason why I've been so aggressive in my calls and it's not just about the 2350 ceiling.k) continuing from previous notes
l) it's not the 24xx that's hard to accept
m) it's what happens if bulls close Monday 2330 (as it is now)
n) this pattern happens very rarely
o) but when it hits, it's relentless
p) as with the original 2150 by 03/08 call, price took "the more unreasonable route there"
q) waiting until last days of February to take off
r) this is "the last second hard swing up"
s) so as my calls for 2300s have been early
t) you will see this last hard swing take out 24xx
u) but the implications of this pattern through 04/19 is so unreal ..
v) bc of the path it took that makes the target hard to accept
w) we can only take it one day at a time to its ending on 04/19
Nota
04/06, 03:02 PM ET, DAYS AGO I SAID LONG AG THIS CYCLE WAS MY SINGULAR BEST IDEA...a) for the following year and change (and I hope if you listened you bought it at $5.20)
b) but I did worry that it had made its 8 year low SO LATE THIS CYCLE
c) and now I understand why
d) bc it's the "nature of this pattern"
e) to take off SO SO LATE
b) EXHIBIT B will wash all your worries away
Nota
g) meanwhile Pan-American Silver (PAAS) only up 40% since the lowh) ONLY 40%, nothing to sneeze at, but that's why I didn't choose PAAS
i) AG is considered royalty among the majors for a reason
j) let me put it this way... if they AG finishes cycle under $100....
k) some might call that a shame and a sham
Nota
3:10 PM ET - SO THE TABLE IS SET.a) and the race is on
b) and the big money has rolled in to AG
c) and Sunday night, here live
d) we will take on the last barrier between us
e) and financial security that we all do this for...
f) that is break of 44-year trend line at 2350
g) be ready, this time we going to kill it!
Nota
Nota
3:24 PM ET for chart above: a) the performance of silver and silver majors WILL ABSOLUTELY CRUSH THE WORLD
b) from here on out until this gold/silver cycle is complete
c) then am I not forecasting silver and AG?
d) I just did: $200 for silver probably $150 AG after everything is said and done
e) but I trade GC FUTURES which IS A LOT SAFER bc I can get out at ANYTIME
f) the way to trade AG is to buy its next check down AND HOLD IT 6-9 months
g) you hold it 12 months and you are going to regret it
h) the way to trade XAGUSD (silver) IS TO BUY IT ON THE OPEN SUNDAY
i) and to forget about for 9 months
j) because trading in and out of silver and AG is like trying to time natural gas
k) I don't know of any one who claim they do it successfully
Nota
l) PAY ATTENTION TO THIS IF YOU WANT IN ON AG (my singular best idea for the next 2 years, but hold less than 1 year)m) so it's 7.xx right now (only trade market hours) while silver 27.xx
n) gold will top 2425 Sunday night and bottom Monday morning around 2265
o) so that is up 4% and down 6%.5
p) IN THAT SAME TIME IN SILVER, after gold has topped, checked and making a second lower top...
q) silver will do the same thing but MAKE SECOND HIGHER TOP
r) remember said this here
s) silver will easily clear 9% Sunday night and I think it takes out the $30-ish trend line
t) only to retrace hard with gold going down
u) HOWEVER
v) when gold makes to it down to 2265 in the morning which is 65 lower than current price
w) silver's check down will be higher then where it is now
x) IT IS AT THIS VERY TIME THAT YOU GO LONG AG IF YOU HAVEN'T YET
y) it maybe higher than where it is now at 8.xx, BUT I PROMISE YOU YOU GO 10-20X
z) before all of this is over
Nota
z1) I'm not being crazy when I say ...z2) AG can move to $20 in 3 weeks
z3) but this is one of the few times I will comment on something that is not gold price
z4) from here on out
z5) it's SOMETHING YOU NEED TO DO IF YOU HAVEN'T
Z6) and the next time I talk about it maybe "it's time to exit AG at $150
z7) that's a wrap on the topic of AG
Nota
Nota
a) for chart above, I put gold's top this cycle at 5500b) which is up $135% from here
c) so $100 silver is the easy call at up +265% from here
d) so why call for $200
e) to convince readers it's THE SMART TO DO HERE
f) especially when I know it can clear $100
g) if I am wrong about $200 silver, you'll walk away up 265% +
h) if I am wrong about AG being up 20X, you'll walk away up 800%+
i) but once again, I am not going to comment on it often bc that's NOT HOW I DO IT
j) people do silver one of two ways (similar to AG)
1) buy and hold almost all the way through
2) buy now take 10% money off they table at each strong high
3) and EXIT WHEN THEY KNOW IT CAN STILL GO UP
Nota
4:09 PM ET, LET'S REVIEW MY COMMENTS ON SILVER AG AND IT'S A BIG DEAL:a) what I do here, is basically forecasting gold prices
b) but this takes work
c) even if you're a follower, you gotta read ALL THIS CRAP
d) and then there's still crazy stuff that can happen when you sleep
e) and trade in, out, in, out, wash, rinse, repeat
f) trading is a lot of work
g) buy silver now, but AG tomorrow
h) wait 9 months
i) you maybe up more on that 1 position VS TRADING THE ENTIRE TIME
j) all you have to do is ignore the swings, takes zero work
k) meaning all the post and writing I do in the next months
l) may be less valuable COMBINED compared to that one singular idea
m) end of comments on silver altogether
Nota
5:42, This is a reminder for me to clear up that check of 2200 I put in the notes earlier.a) I knew that might be misunderstood
b) I should've added extra notes for that
c) will add later
Nota
d) I will start off with here are two channels that you need on your chartNota
Nota
a) for chart above "the part that is not without doubt" is thisb) I was SOOOO sure that 2560 should not be break-able in April
c) this combined with a test of 2200 in various outcomes of trend maps
d) fit like PERFECT PUZZLE PIECES up to end of Friday
e) while I have strong conviction that 2200 should be tested before 6/12
f) the trend maps are moving the needle past 2560
g) in what world do we live in ...
h) if we go north of 2560 AND STILL CHECK 2200 by 6/12?
i) so I ended with we can only take it one day at a time
j) SPECIFICALLY FROM MONDAY 04/08 TO FRIDAY 04/19
Nota
k) and the main reason is I cannot talk about it l) until I am totally correct about the chart at top
m) meaning 2425, 2275 and close 2330
n) only then will it make sense
Nota
8:01 PM - I SEE WHERE TYPO IS NOW, THIS PARAGRAPH NEAR THE START:>>
26) when writing the introduction I went with my first call
27) which is NY CLOSE 2330
28) but I AM NOT SURE HOW TO READ THIS RIGHT
29) hence those are two incoming outcomes for next week
30) either we get continuous retracing to 2200 (bc when are we testing that anyway?)
31) and then filling out a triangle
32) or we do a move >> FOR 2560 << (one more high) and then even more retracing
<<
--
a) somehow that "for 2560" became "for 2022"
b) that's a really bad typo, I am sorry
Nota
8:34 PM, THE FIRST 5 HOURS OF SUNDAY ARE THE MOST CRITICALa) while I don't see us getting "exact result of December's price action"
b) it would not surprise me if we hit our top I first 90 min of trading
c) in December, I thought it would take to early Monday morning
d) but it did it 45 minutes
e) this time I think it's first 5 hours
f) I can be wrong again, and it would do it 45 minutes
g) be aware, bc there's only two moves here
h) exit around 2425 and short it at same time
Nota
i) details wise there is one retrace in between now and 2425j) but my guess that it should be 2375 is probably wrong
k) at closer examination it should be between 2355-2365
l) and drop to 2335-2340
m) after that, the next move up from 2340-ish should move to 2425 without stopping
n) the one other issue to mesh out is the second "lower top"
Nota
o) so from 2425 down, the first stop should be 2380-ish p) then "check up" to 2410-ish
q) then it's all down from there
r) these are the raw numbers from technical data
s) so you have "something to go by"
t) the actual move is not going to be exact but reflect the overall structure I just detailed
Nota
9:11 PM, those 5 hours to top.... a) let's make that 3 hours
b) why?
c) because the "dis-similar" area of the two moves
d) should only take 4 times as long to correct
e) so where the first time topped in 40 minutes
f) this time should not take longer than 160 minutes (in theory)
g) more than 2 but less than 3 hours
Nota
9:19 PM, I GET WHAT WENT WRONG WITH THAT "2022" figurea) in that paragraph
b) I meant that we do a move from 2022 as in the year 2022
c) to make one more top at 2560
d) it's just trying to get the thoughts all out in time
Nota
10:11 PM, LAST NOTES UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOONa) there's one very unique scenario for Monday that I have to discuss
b) in the scenario that 2300-2305 holds as the floor
c) that will put us in "a new world" of price action
d) so be aware
Nota
10:44 PM ET - and just understood why it could be 2300-2305 floora) in December, if you remembered, I had 2120-2125 as basecase
b) the back up plan was 2140
c) I didn't make a back up plan this time because I thought 2425 is hard ceiling
d) but in the case that I am wrong, and that breaks
e) you should realize that that 2425-2265=160
f) so the case that 2305 holds as the floor
g) then the true hard ceiling is 2470
h) AND THIS ALMOST MAKES MORE SENSE
i) because I checked my math again, and the first move up SHOULD BE 2380
j) ok so here's how this goes:
1) it's going to start with a couple smaller moves
2) once it seriously starts popping past 2350....
3) if it stops around 2360 and retraces, then it is PLAN A, 2425 TO 2265
4) if it DOES NOT STOP AT 2365, and moves for 2385-ish AND THEN retraces
5) the retrace would end at 2350-2360 before moving up again
6) in which case our PLAN B is 2470 top and 2300-2305 floor
7) so remember this clearly
8) as I will change plans on the fly as soon as I realize that it is PLAN B
Nota
SUNDAY 1:31 AM, SCRAP PLAN A, IT'S GONNA BE PLAN Ba) I'll make a new draft
b) but to detail plan B the top first
1) open gap a bit, should BUT MAY NOT RETRACE (bc it's going to crash the next day)
2) move for 2350
3) retrace to 2340-
4) move for 2380+
5) retrace to 2360+
6) move for 2460+
7) I have to adjust numbers for the moved down
8) will clarify all of that next draft
c) I have 3 strong reasons why it should be plan B
d) but I have 1 strong reason for plan A
e) so plan B has to be base case
Nota
f) make that 4 strong reasons for plan Bg) but should plan B really hits
h) it will leave no doubt, what should be base case for the rest of April
Nota
Sunday, 11:04 AM ET: Nota
11:12 AM ET, so here is the detailed version of this:Nota
a) for chart above, this is the detailed version with effort focused on price AND timeb) using a number of technical data to achieve
c) however, take with some salt
d) it is only meant as an estimate
e) the actual move could very well be PLAN A
f) but after thorough assessment of all available data
g) PLAN B should outright favorite GOING IN
h) this could very well change in after 20 minutes
i) but if I have to deliver a "detailed base case for 24 hours"
j) this would no doubt fit that description
k) so take minute to absorb that AS A GUIDE
l) the only reason we need a new post is bc of tradingview's update limit per post
m) so to not get flagged for having too many updates should we need it
n) I will post this chart as DRAFT 7-6 later
Nota
11:49 AM THIS POST HAS ENDED. HERE IS DRAFT 7-6:
Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Pubblicazioni correlate
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.