While I was waiting for FED I made this chart. I highlighted all the FED and FED minutes days. On the 27.04. we had a FOMC meeting. At those days we were also in a triangle. The next day we broke out of the triangle and printed 2 days of strong rally to the daily cycle high. (Highligted by blue rectangle) I think there is a decent chance the same thing is happening now. This week we should print the daily cycle high and we need a higher high above 1376. If you watch the chart very carefully you will see that we closed above the bear market trendline today (green). So if the powers want gold to break out they will do it tonight in the next few hours.
Indicators: MACD wants to crossover RSI is heading to overbought - bouncing the 2nd time without getting overbought
If I'M right we will have a pop to 1390-1400 in the next 2-3 days that will be the cycle top of this 2nd daily cycle.
I will set this idea as long. I'm long from 1315-1324 and still convinced about the breakout to 1390.
P.S.: Thanks to mrtommifunn who helped me to find the 27.04. breakout
Commento
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We have a never ending seller in gold. It's in America. But I think he is running out of gold now. No big slam today.
Commenti
Nightstar
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Midnight Surprise --- Sounds like a late night 'booty call' Lol! Me likes :)
But I also don't think Gold will tag 1390 this time around folks. There aren't enough Buyers at the moment and a triangle consolidation can easily turn into a sideways consolidation - with perhaps an undercut low to mark the next DCL - to give time for the 200MA to catch up before the next leg up.
Mannnassser
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Arpi... is it possible technically to consider 1375 was the top for gold and price may go down without printing a new high?
ice_bird001
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I was about to ask the same question. Thanks.
chartwatchers
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We need a higher high.
chartwatchers
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Even 1380 is enough.
RufusDawes
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Be patient people! we are waiting for two or three big green bars out of the triangle then its over... be alert, it will happen within the next week, imo... then its a red bars down 1320 right up to FOMC Sep
lbg01
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Thank you for your analysis.
So if you are right and gold prints the DCH, what do you do?
a) exit position and short to the DCL?
b) partial profit and reload on the pullback?
c) Exit all together and wait for a dip (this will still be bullish right)?
thanks a lot, I´m just learning here...
GoldB777
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I agree. We have about a week until Jackson Hole fed, so there is plenty of time..
staurum
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wow exactly the same thing, so maybe now is 1400 turns
Fib_Predictor
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Arpi, nice analysis mate. I'd like to know your thoughts about possible resistance (punch down) lines. Why am I asking this? Because this setup is really convincing! I'm still suspicious about all these FED manupilations (damn that Dudley) but I really want to know your choice of SL level for a buy from this point on. By the way, if we do approach 1390-1400 on thursday & friday, what's next? Any predictions of falling back to mid 1300s?
But I also don't think Gold will tag 1390 this time around folks. There aren't enough Buyers at the moment and a triangle consolidation can easily turn into a sideways consolidation - with perhaps an undercut low to mark the next DCL - to give time for the 200MA to catch up before the next leg up.