Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Descrizione
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We could have a potential change of trend in the coming days on Bitcoin based on the following signs: - The daily chart shows us a possible double bottom formation right at the 0.382 fib level. - This entire move down appears to be an ABC corrective pattern that is almost complete. - Price is pushing further away from bottom of descending channel - When comparing to the 2015-2017 bull run, we see the first time price approached 0.618 fib there was a sell-off towards the 0.382 and this fib held as the bull run continued: - Looking at the indicators, we are seeing bullish divergences on the MACD and the Sentiment Index which carries a lot of weight on daily time frame as well as the fact that overall uptrend since beginning of 2019 is still intact. - Volume has also steadily been decreasing on this entire move down which might be hinting that the bears are exhausting. - This bull market retracement is exactly on par with the average percentage of all previous bull market retracements as seen here: - Bitcoin Sentiment Analysis shows there is Extreme Fear in the market right now which is typically a good buying opportunity.
If Bitcoin can break past the midline of this downtrend channel, it has a good chance of breaking out towards the 0.5 fib level, or somewhere between 11k-12k. On the downside, there is a wide range of support below here from $8,800 to $9,400, as well as the bottom trend line of the descending channel for price to bounce from to keep this idea active. However, a break below $8,800 would invalidate this idea and we will need to re-assess.
I hope this idea was helpful for you, if it was please leave a thumbs up! Thank you!
Commento
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Will see a breakout today? Price is right against that descending trend line. 4hr charts showing lots of bullish divergences on RSI, MACD, Sentiment Index. Also got a nice bearish exhaustion on RSI exhaustion. Let's see if price can break and close outside that descending trend line. Ideally we would want to see strong volume on the breakout. And if it's strong enough to keep price moving up throughout the day, it would also be great to see a volume bar break above the volume trend line on the daily TF that I drew on chart above. BTW Bitcoin Sentiment analysis is still showing extreme fear in market.
Commento
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Let's also not ignore volume. Clearly the market keeps buying between 9k-9,400, question is whether this is accumulation or just bulls defending the support.
Commento
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Nice breakout! The volume looks pretty decent too for that 4 hr candle. Now a new 4 hour candle has just opened, and price is just above the descending trend line, so I am looking to see this 4 hr candle close above the trend line. Ideally, I'd rather see another big push upwards with volume to give me confidence that we are starting a new uptrend.
Commento
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Looking good so far, slowly but surely the bulls are taking control back. I'll be looking at 10k for my first target
Commento
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Bitcoin looking great, just pushed past 10k (my first target). Now keep an eye on this because we might see a slight pullback at this range:
Commento
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Perfect rejection as I predicted last update...Let's see if price can settle in around 9800-9,900. If it shows stability at that price I will probably add to my existing longs
Commento
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Commento
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Hmmm, kinda just looking like a bull pennant now? I was actually hoping we would drop so I can add longs at a better price but not so sure I'll even get that chance. The above can still play out of course, but if the bulls make a move within the next 2 hours (that is all there is room for in this bull pennant) then we should see price reach around $10,300
That also matches up with these the 0.618 fib resistance and midline of the bigger descending channel (circled in yellow) when we zoom out to the 4hr time frame.
Commento
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Bull flag never completed and broke down. I noticed these bearish divergences on 1hr and figured it would continue to fall where I projected earlier today. My target is still around 9,800-9,900 if price keeps dropping
Commento
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Commento
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Looking like it's already bouncing, found support right on the bottom of this ascending channel I pointed to yesterday. We can see slight divergence on 1hr on MACD, Sentiment Index and some bearish exhaustion already showing on RSI (red). The setup is there, now all we need is more volume to drive this thing up again.
Commento
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And now there is the volume I was waiting for and a really nice push up. Looks like that setup from earlier today was perfect. Now price closed just above that red zone of resistance, so the next target is at the 0.618 (about 10,300 range) which is the target I was calling for yesterday.
Commento
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Commento
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Just look at the daily chart now, keeping it as clean as possible. A perfect double bottom establishing strong support. Huge divergences on Sentiment Index and MACD. The MACD is about to undergo a bullish crossover. Both MACD histogram and Sentiment Index have a ton of room on the upside as they are both just crossing the zero line. If this doesn't look bullish to you, I don't know what does!
Commento
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Bitcoin is flying! Let's now be aware of the 2 resistances upcoming. First, the overlapping 0.618 and 0.5 fib. Then the top of the descending channel in blue above. Price is already at the intersecting fibs, let's see how it plays it and not make any trades or close any trades. I still have my longs from 9600 and 10k open and I see no reason to close out yet. The indicators are still showing lots of room to the upside on the daily charts, so I expect some resistance coming up here but I don't think it will cause for a big dump. Just keep an eye on these areas:
Commento
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Indicators showing potential for a drop on the hourly time frame. Overall uptrend is obviously up and I am not going to close my longs yet, but just keep this in mind that we might see a bit of a drop. Could be a good short scalp:
Commento
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Perfect touch of the upper part of descending channel and drop. Now price is fighting with the 0.618 fib. If it breaks that fib, it'll probably just go straight to the 0.5 fib around 11,100-11,200
Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto
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Target reached. Idea is complete, therefore trade is closed :)
Congrats!
Seems to be good spot to take some profits in case the correction is not over...
tommyf1001
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@Jolgan, Thank you for your input! Yea definitely need to see price break previous highs to consider this correction fully over with. If Bitcoin can create a higher high on daily, after making that higher low around 9,500 then bull run will continue. I see a lot of bears re-emerging again which is pretty interesting considering how fast price has been moving up. Think we'll see more shorts getting punished in the near future
shimmeringpath
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Futures gap 8800 ?
tommyf1001
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@shimmeringpath, There are several gaps that have yet to be filled, that range being one of them. Just because they typically get filled doesn't necessarily mean it will happen now. I'm looking at it now and still see a gap between 10.9k and 11.7k that hasn't been filled either. I haven't paid much attention to gaps to be honest, I can usually predict moves without needing to look at that stuff
MartynasD
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Perfect analysis. What is your short term prediction?
tommyf1001
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@MartynasD, Thank you so much! I am looking at 10k as my first target, see how price reacts around there!
laksonishere
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Thanks tommy! Your analysis is quite persuasive! Hope we can see another bull coming