Hello, fellow traders!
This is my analysis on Biconomy (BICOUSDT).
I've covered Biconomy a lot in my account - it actually has second highest coverage after BTC.
1️⃣ Analysis
The price has recently crossed the resistance line (red line) of the monthly downtrend with notable volume spike. The line used to be the support line of the previous downtrend until the lower breakout in July when it became the resistance of a newer downtrend. The line was constantly being respected, and with the price nearing the ATL (All time low), we see a wedge pattern. The price recorded new ATL before making a breakout. This could be interpreted as a falling wedge pattern where the price reverse the downtrend with explosive increase in volume - starting a strong uptrend.
2️⃣ Expectations
I think the breakout and the volume spike is something to pay attention to. The resistance line has been showing very strong price actions for over half of Biconomy's entire history - crossing such line could potentially signal a strong reversal of the trend. The unusual, explosive volume spike also backs this up. Take a look at the similar attempt in July where the breakout eventually failed without the volume. The price is also very close to the strong support level of 0.1987. With all these information together, we might see a strong uptrend in near future.
3️⃣ Key approach
4️⃣ Other approach
- I'm going to skip all the approaches for this analysis because I am not going to trade but just watch. But if I were, I would set my initial target price to 0.3667 which is key resistance level and exit all when the price reaches the green line which is a support line of early uptrend. Reason I am not going to trade is because it will be based on a raw assumption (prediction) that the breakout is true - this personally does not align with my trading rules. I know I am not strong enough to endure that kind of stress.
5️⃣ Considerations
1. If you are willing to trade, keep in mind that this is not going to be a short time trade. It might take months or even years for us to reach our targets. Or it might not reach at all.
2. 0.2530 - 0.3047 zone (where the price is currently in) is very difficult to cross. This is because the zone represents the gap between Biconomy's high and close on its first trading day. It might take a long period of consolidation for the price to finally break through.
3. The selling pressure is very high right now. This is not a surprise though considering the historical background of the current price range. Also the reversal of trend always bring high opposite pressure in order to maintain the current trend - older the trend is, higher the pressure.
4. This is an adventure. Nobody knows what's going to happen. Once a breakout happens, you really can't see what's next. You cannot comfortably rely on the historical data. Yes, the price may respect historical levels and zones but even that contains some uncertainty - if a line gets broken, what makes you think others won't? The breakout also has possibility of failing or being false. New trend means no historical data, no background information, and no idea what to expect or where to expect next pivot points. This could give you a lot of stress which is why I am not going to trade this one.
5. Biconomy has no news in TradingView. It doesn't even have a section for it, which I thought was odd. However, I've done some research on the internet and I felt pretty positive about their active engagements on Social media and their innovative ambition of the project.
💡 Breakout might allow you great fortune but contains a lot of risks and contingencies. And this is why I prefer trading inside the trend - granted, trend does not last forever and past does not always represent the future, but we can definitely take profit with proper understanding of how the market moves and confirmation of trend continuing. Just like surfing. But if you insist on trading Biconomy, make sure to set multiple layers such as price rebound or break of structure to confirm the uptrend.
💡 Analysis on Biconomy I've done so far were mostly based on the hourly chart. But analyzing the daily chart gave me a broader idea and perspective of how price might move in the future. Lesson I learned here is that larger timeframe gives us wider view of the movements. Watching the hourly chart or lower timeframe could also be pretty stressful. Funny thing is even if I enter at the same price, doing so based on the hourly chart analysis gives me anxiety whereas daily chart gives me more confidence. If you zoom out and set your holding period longer, it's a lot less stressful and also safer. So don't be anxious, don't be emotional, do your best and the rest is up to God. Thank you for reading my long analysis and I hope you got something out of it!
React, don't predict! Stay disciplined and patient. Don't get greedy and be thankful.
Nehemiah 13:7-9