Long
BTCCNY bull market forming
The dormant BTC has awakened after the Greek news (regardless of whether or not it actually had any causation), beginning a push upwards. So far we've had two upward waves which appear to fit the typical 12345-ABC Elliott wave pattern. I'm targeting 1800 Yuan as this was support formed in the push to $300 in March and is also roughly the 1.618 extension of the first two bullish waves.
Some important things to note:
- logarithmic downtrends have been broken on several exchanges, and OKCoin has been holding above. While this line is arguably arbitrary it will provide a more bullish sentiment from some of the market.
- ~$250, the top of a range we were stuck in for around three months, has been turned into support with the latest wave C. $210 was seen as major support but bears were unable to break even $220, with higher lows forming since $213.
- the 12 hour 50 EMA is higher than the 200 EMA for the first time since last August, when the downtrend gained its initial momentum.
- LTC may be being used as a sort of shorter-term market test for a bitcoin pump; it has the same Adam and Eve formation on the daily (which broke upwards sucessfully) and a halving around the end of August.
- the pattern/fractal forming is one seen in several altcoin pumps, with the market taking large steps up and then consolidating above the top of the last high or consolidation range repeatedly before a severe selloff - see CANN, LTC, XPM, PPC, XDN - all of which were or could be seen as emerging bull markets after extended sideways. I've linked some for comparison:
i.imgur.com/TxiiCS2.png
i.imgur.com/33nR94u.png
i.imgur.com/UzMoVZp.png (ANC last year)
i.imgur.com/wIDXilO.png (ANC currently)
Therefore, i'm concluding that sideways here is also to be seen as bullish.
Again i'm using a very high risk reward play - in my opinion return to the previous support of 240 (a break back into the range and the 4h 200ema) will result in further sideways and will likely mean no bullish action in bitcoin until halving next year.
Some important things to note:
- logarithmic downtrends have been broken on several exchanges, and OKCoin has been holding above. While this line is arguably arbitrary it will provide a more bullish sentiment from some of the market.
- ~$250, the top of a range we were stuck in for around three months, has been turned into support with the latest wave C. $210 was seen as major support but bears were unable to break even $220, with higher lows forming since $213.
- the 12 hour 50 EMA is higher than the 200 EMA for the first time since last August, when the downtrend gained its initial momentum.
- LTC may be being used as a sort of shorter-term market test for a bitcoin pump; it has the same Adam and Eve formation on the daily (which broke upwards sucessfully) and a halving around the end of August.
- the pattern/fractal forming is one seen in several altcoin pumps, with the market taking large steps up and then consolidating above the top of the last high or consolidation range repeatedly before a severe selloff - see CANN, LTC, XPM, PPC, XDN - all of which were or could be seen as emerging bull markets after extended sideways. I've linked some for comparison:
i.imgur.com/TxiiCS2.png
i.imgur.com/33nR94u.png
i.imgur.com/UzMoVZp.png (ANC last year)
i.imgur.com/wIDXilO.png (ANC currently)
Therefore, i'm concluding that sideways here is also to be seen as bullish.
Again i'm using a very high risk reward play - in my opinion return to the previous support of 240 (a break back into the range and the 4h 200ema) will result in further sideways and will likely mean no bullish action in bitcoin until halving next year.
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