BTC When will the bear market end?

1 apr 2018

This is what I'm looking for to go long in the market.

We need to see exhaustion of the current downtrend. Strong RSI bullish divergence on a higher timescale (like 4-hour, daily), failure to go much lower despite extreme bearish sentiment.

It feels like we are close, but close could mean there's another $1,000, $2,000 or $3,000 below us before the real bottom is put in.

Bearish sentiment is nearing unanimous but not quite. For that reason I do not thing we are at bottom (yet), however, we could be soon.

Keep watching + waiting

1 apr 2018

Nota

While we are very bearish in price, shorts are getting kinda cocky. Never a good sign.

1 apr 2018

Trade attivo

In this trading idea I shorted from 7900 - 7000

Subsequently shorted from 7125 - 6500

I am now reinvesting the profits since we have a bullish engulfing candle at confluence of support

Long at 6600



Reasons to long:

- 50 week MA
- Downtrend line
- Near prior BTC 6k low
- RSI 4-hour, 1-hour, 15-min all showing bullish divergence

This may not be 'the bottom' but there is high chance of a strong bounce at these levels.

Will watch the trade carefully for a reversal and signal to get out

1 apr 2018

Trade attivo

Charting a possible retrace. We have a clear 5 waves down. Now ABC up?

1 apr 2018

Nota

BTC loves wedges and bullish RSI divergence

1 apr 2018

Nota

1 apr 2018

Nota

Inverse BTC. Would you buy it? Probably but right now isn't the place to 'long' inverse BTC

1 apr 2018

Nota

As good a signal as ever that the bear trend is over (for now)

1 apr 2018

Nota

Got out of the long for +100pts and flipped short. Sell 6900, stop 7010

1 apr 2018

Nota

I feel like we are in dangerous territory for shorts so got out of this now for +130pts

2 apr 2018

Trade attivo

Overnight a limit order for long filled and I am now long from 6812. We have the possibility of a counter-trend rally developing from current levels up to about 7400-7500.

It's risky to long rallies in a downtrend but my strategy has and always will be 'get moar coin3z' so i #Fomo buy when we go up. Better to get in low + out with a stop in case it doesn't play out.

2 apr 2018

Trade attivo

Broke the trendline. Long is the right call ... for now

2 apr 2018

Nota

At the moment I am targetting the 7400 area for the price to run into resistance.

2 apr 2018

Nota

Zoom in on that green trendline, well we broke it and backtested perfectly.

2 apr 2018

Nota

Market fractal from Feb 6th Lows rally overlaid on the current Apr 1st lows rally.

Same shape of V-bottom, same rally back to the .78 Fib and consolidation (so far)

If this plays out expect a few days of chop around the 7k mark before further upside.

2 apr 2018

Nota

Energy is building for the rocket. Study the Feb 6th low, we have exactly the same pattern. Hit the 78 fib, spikey sideways consolidation then rocket



Long from ~6800 with stops at the low (6400)

3 apr 2018

Trade attivo

The fomo is real!

This is a good 50% take profit target if you're long from the lows. Or hodl for glory with a stoploss at break even

3 apr 2018

Nota

Charting the retrace, Sold 50% of long from 6800 at 7414.

Stop at break even for the rest.

3 apr 2018

Nota

Have sold the other 50% of the long now... watching and waiting

3 apr 2018

Nota

3 apr 2018

Nota

The fomo is real, bullish ascending wedge is forming. As a result, I've re-longed.

Lost about 0.02 BTC in fees and spreads but I'm now back in the market

3 apr 2018

Trade attivo

Continuation. We long

3 apr 2018

Nota

4 apr 2018

Trade attivo

Big consolidation under the red trend line (which is two previous highs linked)

Watching these areas carefully.

Above 7410: this is a continuation pattern and I hold long
Below 7240: this is a reversal pattern and I close longs, possibly start looking for short entries

4 apr 2018

Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto

Nasty reversal bar on the daily. Out the market for now

4 apr 2018

Nota

Exiting long for a small profit was the right call as this market is turning sour, fast.

4 apr 2018

Nota

The severity of this dump suggests more downside is coming, but should we consolidate first? I'm looking at this fractal earlier on in the year where a sharp rally was followed by hard dump

This fractal (if it plays out) will take us to the bottom of the bear channel at about 5777

4 apr 2018

Trade attivo

This is a risky, potentially losing counter-trend trade but the reward would be great.

I have gone long bitcoin 6841, stop at 6695

4 apr 2018

Nota

5 apr 2018

Nota

two fractals which I've found. One from before the Feb 6th crash, and another from March 10th of this year.

Both call for a retrace to the downtrend line. One is slightly more bullish than the other.



This is risky territory for shorts (and for longs for that matter). Shorts are near All Time High again and they seem to open the most right at the bottom. This can cause vicious bear market rallies as shorts get squeezed. 



5 apr 2018

Nota



5 apr 2018

Nota

Following this fractal nicely. The chances are we will rally into 7250 then decide either up or down.

Down could get ugly (5800 is a possibility). Up - similar - a sharp bear market rally to 7700 is not out of the question

7 apr 2018

Trade attivo

ok long story short. I got faked out on the dump. I was stopped out and lost a few % of account. bow we pumped I smell bullishness in the air. I have market bought 6800. no leverage. I invested all my cash in BTC at this level. if it goes lower I may buy more. yeah , sod it. I'm at that point.

where BTC will go, nobody knows, but I do know this wedge will break out soon, possibly up.

9 apr 2018

Trade attivo

Choppy waters! If this is a bottom, expect weeks of this ... every pump will get sold as people go OMGOSH its up $100 my best chance to sell NOW

but truth is accumulation is going on at these levels. People are buying lots of BTC and others are selling lots of BTC. A transfer of wealth is going on. Which side will win? I'm betting on the bull side. Can we go lower? Sure... 5k is not out of the question, but then what? We have already seen a 70% decline from the ATH, and billionaires and deep pockets traders still want crypto...

12 apr 2018

Trade attivo

Sometimes you gotta trust your gut... I lost a little bit of my account trading at the bottom, but I am long from 6800.

The fomo is real! Sentiment has changed. 6500 now looks like the bottom. Buy dips fellas!

12 apr 2018

Trade chiuso manualmente

Closing this idea as the bear market bottom seems to have been found.

Trades still open:

- long Crypto from sub 7k
- whole account invested in BTC, LTC and ETH
- No leverage