BitcoinShort
Is bitcoin forming a right shoulder?
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The monthly just printed a spinning top after a long uptrend.
My contention for a long time has been that we are at time period similar to April 2013, and the atmosphere in bitcoin seems to support that. So much uncertainty in the air as I have spoken about. Of course, things can change fast, if it became apparent or clear that either a. no contentious HF is coming to btc any time soon or b. common sense will prevail and segwit will get activated in btc …then okay that would be super bullish.
Taking a look at the chart, a head and shoulders pattern has begun to emerge, and yes these patterns can be unreliable until confirmed, but this is not the only point of data I am working off of. You can take a look at my linked past charts to see how I a have come to my conclusions.
Anyway, you can note what appears to be standard 5 wave EW pattern down, and then a-b-c correction up. But c may already be complete judging by the bearish divergence that is shown on both stoch and RSI. MACD histogram is going up but yet we are still below the zero line, for now at least. Indicators shmindicators right? Lets look at volume. I think what jumped out to me a long time ago, is that we had much less volume on what would be the head of this pattern than the initial high for the left shoulder. Which is definitely an early sign of this pattern. And now, as we have rose for the potential right shoulder, there does not seem to be much volume, its meh, at least for now.
I like to watch the 4h as well for a more detailed view, which is also looking bearish:
As i’ve talked about the in the past, the 50,100 ma cross has been a good signal. For me to change my mind on bitcoin I would probably have to see a. 50 cross back over the 100 (beware of whipsaws) and b. the price itself, on the 1d chart, break back above the 50 MA. If those two things were to happen, okay that would be pretty damn bullish.
Anyway, that’s my quick synopsis. To me this looks like a bearish picture, when combined with the monthly chart and everything that is happening in bitcoin. There is certainly a bull case to be made as well, but given the fundamentals, I don’t buy it, at least not yet.
Gluck in your trades.
My contention for a long time has been that we are at time period similar to April 2013, and the atmosphere in bitcoin seems to support that. So much uncertainty in the air as I have spoken about. Of course, things can change fast, if it became apparent or clear that either a. no contentious HF is coming to btc any time soon or b. common sense will prevail and segwit will get activated in btc …then okay that would be super bullish.
Taking a look at the chart, a head and shoulders pattern has begun to emerge, and yes these patterns can be unreliable until confirmed, but this is not the only point of data I am working off of. You can take a look at my linked past charts to see how I a have come to my conclusions.
Anyway, you can note what appears to be standard 5 wave EW pattern down, and then a-b-c correction up. But c may already be complete judging by the bearish divergence that is shown on both stoch and RSI. MACD histogram is going up but yet we are still below the zero line, for now at least. Indicators shmindicators right? Lets look at volume. I think what jumped out to me a long time ago, is that we had much less volume on what would be the head of this pattern than the initial high for the left shoulder. Which is definitely an early sign of this pattern. And now, as we have rose for the potential right shoulder, there does not seem to be much volume, its meh, at least for now.
I like to watch the 4h as well for a more detailed view, which is also looking bearish:
As i’ve talked about the in the past, the 50,100 ma cross has been a good signal. For me to change my mind on bitcoin I would probably have to see a. 50 cross back over the 100 (beware of whipsaws) and b. the price itself, on the 1d chart, break back above the 50 MA. If those two things were to happen, okay that would be pretty damn bullish.
Anyway, that’s my quick synopsis. To me this looks like a bearish picture, when combined with the monthly chart and everything that is happening in bitcoin. There is certainly a bull case to be made as well, but given the fundamentals, I don’t buy it, at least not yet.
Gluck in your trades.
Nota
If the neckline breaks, here are some good targets:Nota
Price meeting resistance from the 618 fib now...it did manage to make it above the 50 MA which is pretty bullish but can it remain above it or will it struggle now and fall below? If it can hang above that would be bullish, but I will believe it when I see it.Nota
In addition to .618 fib, and 50 ma territory, there is also a rising wedge on the 4h:And the MACD on the 1d is trying to make it back above the zero line. It has been above for this whole time, except for a brief time during the bfx hack, but quickly made it back above. So the question is, was this last dip like the bfx hack...or is a reversal in store. Soon we should find out, seems we are at a pivotal point.
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Potential for some FUD here: medium.com/purse-essays/ready-for-liftoff-a5533f4de0b6 BU talking about MASFNota
Fell out of the wedge...daily is flirting with falling below the 50 MA...Nota
Also forgot to add the news about Viabtc's new exchange...all the more validation of this coup attempt on bitcoin.Nota
Looks like a rising wedge on the 4h:Is that all she wrote? I mean, the price has surprisingly broken through multiple levels of key resistance, but it could just be the old market inflicting the most pain on the most participants axiom. Should be interesting to see if we'll remain the old ATH of 1160, above the 50 MA on the daily.
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To me this rally is way overextended, just inflicting the most pain on the most participants, bear divs everywhere. At the 78 fib now. Could we go parabolic? Sure. I think its very unlikely from here though. A better question to me would be when this loses steam, do we dump hard and break the 50, 100 MA's, 618 fib, 50 fib, etc? Or do we just make them support again before going higher. Time will tell. 
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