BTCUSD Consolidation Continues

10 lug 2016

Following the failure to break 700 and price getting back below the Daily Resistance of 672 price has continued to consolidate as predicted. Timing on price action plus daily statistics are pointing to an event on Wednesday or Thursday of this week. My bet would be on bearish due to Wednesday's statistics if we hold the Daily resistances until then. The next supports are going to be off the Weekly with 611 being the strongest confirmed support recently.

The Halvening Effect
Psychologically a lot of people were expecting The Halvening to result in a big pop. This was very unlikely to be the case for many reasons. The first, and most important in my opinion, was the charts and price action suggesting a very muted move if any. The second, and most prescient, is that large moves invariably come when people least expect them. If everyone is thinking one way you can almost be certain the market sentiment will shift hard the other way. That's what seemed to happen on 7/7 this past week. I imagine a lot of bullish Hodlers through The Halvening were very disappointed. What now seems clear is that the last run up was the market pricing in The Halvening well ahead of time as markets will always do for well-known catalysts.

Long Term Forecast
I keep getting asked when to buy or when to sell. The reality is that after big run up in Bitcoin there is typically a long time of very little movement at all. This period of consolidation could last several months. There may be some halfway decent trends within that period found in swing trading (4 hour/2 hour) but nothing yielding the $100 moves trend traders might desire. Consolidation based trading strategies may become the best plays. If seasonal patterns hold it could be November before any real action is seen.