1W shake-out ends 2024-08-08, peak 2025-08, bottom 2028-08-08...

24 giu

1W shake-out ends 2024-08-08, peak 2025-08, bottom 2028-08-08, peak late-2032 or early-2033, then bottom in 2034.

Bitcoin Market Slowdown: Speculation, Technical Analysis, and Historical Insights

The recent slowdown in the Bitcoin market can be attributed to several factors, including a shift in investor behavior. Many individuals treated cryptocurrencies like checking accounts, fueling excessive speculation instead of adopting a long-term investment approach similar to certificates of deposit or traditional bonds (excluding ETF bonds). This speculative frenzy led to a depletion of disposable income, straining the financial health of the middle class. As a result, businesses are experiencing a drop in revenue due to decreased middle-class consumption, further impacting the overall market.

Technical Analysis: Shakeout and Potential Price Movement

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin (BTC) is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase, or "shakeout," for the next 46 days, potentially ending on or before August 8th, 2024. This suggests a period of price fluctuations without a clear upward or downward trend. Following this, a price rise is expected, with initial signs appearing as early as July 2024, but a more substantial increase is likely between August 2024 and peaking in August 2025.

Long-Term BTC Cycle: Boom, Bust, and Renewal

While the prediction is for a peak in August 2025, it's crucial to consider the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin has followed boom-and-bust cycles. Following the 2025 peak, a significant bear cycle is anticipated, potentially leading to a crash extending until August 2028. This extended downturn could be exacerbated by potential recessions in 2025 and/or 2026, coupled with continued inflationary pressures. However, this bear cycle is likely to be followed by a new bull cycle, mirroring past Bitcoin market behavior. Looking even further ahead, BTC is forecasted to peak again in late 2032 or early 2033, followed by another bear cycle bottoming in 2034.

Important to Remember:

This is a long-term forecast, and the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. Predictions can be inaccurate.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Historical Performance and Potential Entry Points (Informational Only):

This section presents investment strategies that have aligned well with historical market trends, along with potential future holding entry points based on the provided data. It's crucial to understand that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile.

• November 2021: Holding USDT (Tether)
  
• March 2022: Holding PAXG (Gold)
  
• December 2022: Holding BTC (Bitcoin)
  
• August 2025 (roughly +/- 4 months): Holding USDT (Tether)
  
• January 2026 (roughly +/- 3 months): Holding PAXG (Gold)
  

24 giu

Nota

This next halving cycle (after this current 2024 halving) may actually need some further calculation. It's very hard to calculate that many years into the future, but the following may be more precise for the next halving cycle:

Based on the historical pattern, and assuming the next halving is on March 27, 2028, here's what the next cycle might look like:

Increase:

The next BTC price increase period could start roughly 1.5 years before the halving, around October 2026.
It might continue until 1.2 years after the halving, placing the possible end around March 2029.

Peak:

The peak could be between 0.7 years and 1.4 years after the halving. This translates to a potential peak window between October 2028 and July 2029.

24 giu

Nota

This is the recalculated 2028 halving cycle:

27 giu

Nota

A Perfect Storm for Share Prices

August 2024 marks a turning point. Short-term holders will face a steeper climb to reacquire shares as corporations enter an overconsumption phase. This phase begins to ensure on-time delivery for the holiday season.

Here's why:

Production Lead Time: Companies need to finalize purchases by August 8th to allow factories 30-60 days for production, plus another 30-60 days for ocean freight (potentially extended due to container shortages). This creates a window of up to 120 days leading up to December 12th.
Consumer Demand: Consumers will likely feel the strain 30 days after August 8th, as companies ramp up production to meet holiday demand. This means higher expenses in August, followed by a need to save in September to prepare for increased spending in October and November.

Investor Opportunity:

This extended lead time creates a window for investors. Share prices are likely to see a gradual increase throughout August-November, with a potential surge in December as the window for accumulation closes. This could lead to a significant price jump in January, setting the stage for a peak in 2025.

27 giu

Nota

1W 2024-08 Meltdown: A Phoenix Rises from the Ashes of Market Mayhem:

(click to play)

28 giu

Nota

Important Update:
This new playbook (chart above this comment) details an investment approach for BTC, gold, and USD, outlining estimated entry and exit points

So please monitor this new chart (idea) directly above this comment here as it is more precise than this similar idea; just to add some clarity for the viewers.