REPUBLISHING Tim West's January 2014 FORECAST FOR DJIA
I just find it interesting that so far this forecast is going along pretty close to reality - The market did move down in the first part of the year and it dropped the same magnitude (almost exactly) as forecast. Then the new high occurred and that happened after the correction and to nearly the exact same price as forecast. Now that we are facing the end of the year and the forecast was for a decline into the end of the year... can you believe that this forecast will come true???
Tim 8/16/2014 3:36PM EST Saturday
Here's the text of the forecast for this year 2014, from January:
2014 Forecast:
The market has not built enough time up here to sustain a long term rally. But with more time at lower levels then accumulation can develop and the bull market can continue. However, from current levels the market is not on sturdy ground. The market is stretched up at 165 and support is down at 149 and implies a downside risk of 10%. The time of the last consolidation was 12 weeks and we are in the 12th week of the rally. So, time has run out. Since the market has needed 20 weeks of accumulation before each previous rally, it is bearish to me that it only took 12 weeks in this latest accumulation.
The factors driving the market until now have been clear (stock buybacks, earnings growth, Fed driven low interest rates, equity fund inflows), but we are ahead of rational long term valuations and I would not recommend committing new funds to this market.
I think this year will be at best a sideways to down year as investors still have very few choices on where to invest and stocks will be a focus, primarily because money has flowed into equities and out of bonds and corporations have repurchased stock and issued debt. Corporate leverage is up. Margin buying is at record levels. Investors are optimistic again. Analysts seem unanimous in forecasting higher prices.
This is a great time to do the opposite and walk away.
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Tim 8/16/2014 3:36PM EST Saturday
Here's the text of the forecast for this year 2014, from January:
2014 Forecast:
The market has not built enough time up here to sustain a long term rally. But with more time at lower levels then accumulation can develop and the bull market can continue. However, from current levels the market is not on sturdy ground. The market is stretched up at 165 and support is down at 149 and implies a downside risk of 10%. The time of the last consolidation was 12 weeks and we are in the 12th week of the rally. So, time has run out. Since the market has needed 20 weeks of accumulation before each previous rally, it is bearish to me that it only took 12 weeks in this latest accumulation.
The factors driving the market until now have been clear (stock buybacks, earnings growth, Fed driven low interest rates, equity fund inflows), but we are ahead of rational long term valuations and I would not recommend committing new funds to this market.
I think this year will be at best a sideways to down year as investors still have very few choices on where to invest and stocks will be a focus, primarily because money has flowed into equities and out of bonds and corporations have repurchased stock and issued debt. Corporate leverage is up. Margin buying is at record levels. Investors are optimistic again. Analysts seem unanimous in forecasting higher prices.
This is a great time to do the opposite and walk away.
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