Bear flag/pennant

27 lug 2017

If you click "share" - "make it mine" then you will be able to set up alarms on those lines as I described for yourself. In case of a proper break out, the conservative target is indicated by green line and actual target is indicated by orange line. However, we can stop going down at any of the major supports that are indicated in my previous idea (linked below)

Right now I have no position, but if we cross this thin red line downwards, I will make a small short again of 4-5 USD (as long as it's inside the pennant gray lines) finally we see some clearer formation of a bear flag/pennant. The volume reduction also indicates the same.

So, to take the most out of TradingView we can set up alarm on this thin red line with "crossing down" option and when that goes off, we can open small short unless we have had a huge spike of volume on that candle going up.

Next, we can set up alarm on that line slightly below the pennant bottom and go short if the volume confirms the break out (spike in volume relative to the near 5 candles or so). This is the main potential play.

Finally, we can set up another alarm on the green line slightly above the pennant to either go long (very small, of about 4 dollars, as we don't have a clear target) if we have huge volume on the break up (which is very unlikely but possible) or just to know that our bear pennant/flag has failed and is irrelevant now.

As usual, Happy Trading :)

27 lug 2017

Nota

Just heads up, if we go slightly higher than the top downward tilted green line, it does NOT necessarily mean that we are out of the bear flag/pennant. It may easily mean that the pennant actually is really a flag (as you can see the top gray line is not a good resistance as only 2 points touched it inside the consolidation area. To confirm if the bear flag is no longer valid use the volume and the shape (as long as it's looking as a flag, we shouldn't yet open longs).

28 lug 2017

Nota

Quick update: while I am overall still bearish, but this thing starts to look way too long for a flag/pennant, so beware that this can be a symmetric triangle and symmetric triangles do not have a bull/bear bias. They can break out either way. I will post targets when the break out does occur.

28 lug 2017

Nota

We broke down. I'm shorting 189-178 or maybe safest target 182. The actual target based on the pole is 176ish.

28 lug 2017

Nota

To be completely clear, after those targets, we don't have to stop, we could go even lower, it is uncertain right now.

29 lug 2017

Nota

Ok, so the safe target of 182 was reached. Based on my very sleepy analysis it looks like we will still see lower prices (some of the targets are 176, 172 and 165ish, based on different patterns on the graph). Note that we can also stop at any of the support lines and support trend lines (which were resistance lines before) from that previous my idea where I drew them all.

In fact, It's more likely that the historic supports and trend lines have the priority over pattern targets.

I closed my position and will go to sleep (although it does look tempting to open another short, I am too tired and have a rule not to open trades when I am sleepy, as I can be sloppy). If you do listen to this and open another short don't blame me, as I said I am not even trusting myself to do it in this state. Have fun!

Good luck and happy trading!