EURAUD - Ahead of Aussie employment data

9 apr 2014

This is the update to the EURAUD head and shoulders trade idea mentioned here tradingview.com/v/r4p8kgcI/

In this chart, i've plotted the fundamentals, namely the Aussie labour stats. Some points of note:

1. On each of these days, only the Aussie data was important. There wasn't any Eurozone data released. So we can assume that the bullish/bearish strength was mostly driven by the Aussie unemployment data.

2. Past revisions definitely play a big role in strengthening the bullish or bearish bias. Ex: Look at data revisions for 16/01 (# employed revised downward from 21k to 15.4k) and last month's release where # employed revised from -3.7 to 18k (extremely bullish Aussie).

Tomorrow's data:

# of employed expected to increase only by 7.3k while unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.1%

I'll refrain from forecasting the scenarios, but traders do keep the following in mind:

# of employed: Actual vs forecast
Unemployment rate: Actual vs forecast
Revisions: Revised up or down

Assuming the range is 250 pips, this gives an upside target back to the neckline while a downside target range of 150Pips brings EURAUD closer to the target region of 1.45 - 1.4345

Note that the current estimates are bearish, so ideally Aussie should be able to beat the numbers. A less than expected number is going to make EURAUD shorts risky.

Good luck!!