EURUSD mid term forecast

9 ago 2015

Last NFP friday (7th of August 2015) didn't come with big surprises. Slightly worse than expecated data caused the major pair failed to breakdown through 1,0850 area and even formed a bullish outside bar on daily chart. In the short term it can force the pair to test the higher levels, from 1,1000 to 1,1200. Anyway, as long as the incoming data form the US economy (most of all the August Retail Sales, CPI, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Durable Goods Orders and GDP forecast) wouldn't considerably disappoint, the long term bearish trend should stay intact. The first significant catalyst for further direction would be in my opinion the September FOMC meeting and September data from the labour market. If they come in line with the broader consensus (which currently favours the US dolar), we can observe another breakdown try at the 1,0850 level. Similary, worse than expected data readings can send the major to the upper barier of this 1,05 - 1,15 consolidation and if the interest rate hiking in the US would prolonged, even beyond.