General Market Outlook - May 27th, 2014
Interesting Pairs:
EUR/USD - Bullish
- Filled my 1.3620 buy limit on Friday and exited this morning at 1.3660 for 40 pips
- Just filled another 1.3620 buy limit today, waiting to see what happens now.
- It should be noted that this play is fairly risky because this is effectively the retrace move, which doesn't always happen.
GBP/USD - Bullish
- We're approaching the bottom trend line soon.
- On my charts (FxPro), it looks like it'll hit around the 1.678X region but on TradingView (FXCM), it's a bit lower at 1.676X
- So I'll be interested in loading longs between 1.676X and 1.678X
NZD/USD - Bullish
- Still waiting for my 0.8520 buy limit to fill
- Bottom of the range
- Support / demand region
USD/CHF - Bearish
- I started building a short position here at 0.8975
- The top of the trend line is about 0.898X (assuming it holds), where I'll be filling more shorts
USD/JPY - Bearish
- Currently holding a short position with an average price of 101.95
- The 102 level is breached but it wasn't as strong a reaction as I thought, so I'm not that worried right now.
- I expected price to surge up as stops were taken out but that didn't happen....
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Developing Pairs:
AUD/USD - Bullish
- My buy limits at and below the 0.9200 level have yet to be filled, so I'm still waiting
XAG/USD - Bearish
- Looks like markets are pushing down gold and silver today, let's see if the descending triangle finally breaks or not.
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Confusing Pairs:
USD/CAD - No comment
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Breakdown of this week's trade scenarios:
Probability Plays: EUR/USD and USD/CHF
- Look at how many daily candles we've had in the current move so far
Range Plays: AUD/USD and NZD/USD
- With Forex, historically speaking, we have ranging markets and I love ranging markets because it's easy, buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
Trend Plays: GBP/USD and USD/CHF
- Technically speaking, trend channels can be viewed as range plays as well. The only difference being that price is diagonal but you still buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
Test Play: USD/JPY
- Probably the trickiest type of play because what's to say the broken ________ (in this case, trend line) will reverse it's role (in this case, become resistance).
Lastly, if things don't pan out the way I expect, then you may want to consider reversing the position. Have stop losses and buy/sell stop orders in place when that happens.
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Note: Refer to the last General Market Outlook for analysis going into this week's trade scenarios
Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.
EUR/USD - Bullish
- Filled my 1.3620 buy limit on Friday and exited this morning at 1.3660 for 40 pips
- Just filled another 1.3620 buy limit today, waiting to see what happens now.
- It should be noted that this play is fairly risky because this is effectively the retrace move, which doesn't always happen.
GBP/USD - Bullish
- We're approaching the bottom trend line soon.
- On my charts (FxPro), it looks like it'll hit around the 1.678X region but on TradingView (FXCM), it's a bit lower at 1.676X
- So I'll be interested in loading longs between 1.676X and 1.678X
NZD/USD - Bullish
- Still waiting for my 0.8520 buy limit to fill
- Bottom of the range
- Support / demand region
USD/CHF - Bearish
- I started building a short position here at 0.8975
- The top of the trend line is about 0.898X (assuming it holds), where I'll be filling more shorts
USD/JPY - Bearish
- Currently holding a short position with an average price of 101.95
- The 102 level is breached but it wasn't as strong a reaction as I thought, so I'm not that worried right now.
- I expected price to surge up as stops were taken out but that didn't happen....
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Developing Pairs:
AUD/USD - Bullish
- My buy limits at and below the 0.9200 level have yet to be filled, so I'm still waiting
XAG/USD - Bearish
- Looks like markets are pushing down gold and silver today, let's see if the descending triangle finally breaks or not.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Confusing Pairs:
USD/CAD - No comment
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Breakdown of this week's trade scenarios:
Probability Plays: EUR/USD and USD/CHF
- Look at how many daily candles we've had in the current move so far
Range Plays: AUD/USD and NZD/USD
- With Forex, historically speaking, we have ranging markets and I love ranging markets because it's easy, buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
Trend Plays: GBP/USD and USD/CHF
- Technically speaking, trend channels can be viewed as range plays as well. The only difference being that price is diagonal but you still buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
Test Play: USD/JPY
- Probably the trickiest type of play because what's to say the broken ________ (in this case, trend line) will reverse it's role (in this case, become resistance).
Lastly, if things don't pan out the way I expect, then you may want to consider reversing the position. Have stop losses and buy/sell stop orders in place when that happens.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Refer to the last General Market Outlook for analysis going into this week's trade scenarios
Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.
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