Is the STI (Singapore) close to a massive collapse?

17 giu 2015

As someone living in Singapore, I've stumbled across signals of perhaps a start of a larger implosion that's about to happen in the near future.

The ghost malls:
In recent years, there've been a dramatic increase in the number of vacancy in retail malls including those in the prime areas such as city area.
What's seen right now is even worst than 2007 prior to the collapse, it simply warns about bad times ahead.
The ever increasing high rentals have also played a part in this, with a retail store as small as 60 square foot near train stations as high as $10,000 SGD per month.
facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1581671718752604&id=1438936173026160&pnref=story

Many international brands such as John Little, Marks & Spencer, Fancl , have also closed/consolidated most of their retail outlets in Singapore.
features.insing.com/feature/two-john-little-stores-to-close-in-singapore/id-06683101/
straitstimes.com/breaking-news/money/story/japanese-skincare-brand-fancl-close-its-singapore-stores-20140203

Politics:
After the collapse of Lehman Brother in 2008, the Singapore economy experienced a relatively swift V-shape recovery partly due to the population policy that brought in millions of foreigners in a short period of time. With more population, it stimulate housing demand immediately and everything else in the economy. However at the same time also caused overcrowding, strain in the infrastructure, higher cost of living, inequality & etc.
In a desperate measure, the parliament passed a population white paper bill with little or no debate by the Member Parliament targeting 6.9 million population by the year 2020 from the current 5 million.
population.sg/whitepaper/

This is unlike the US that took nearly 5 years for S&P to reach prior highs.

It have certainly met with setbacks as the ruling party, People Action Party lost the first Group Representation Constituency in its history despite gerrymandering. Including a record low amount of votes in history since 1950s, at 60% in 2012.
The rate of new citizens and permanent resident intake in Singapore have certainly slowed dramatically after the election. Can they still afford to continue accelerate the intake of foreigners if were to start crashing down here?

Number of new Singapore citizens and Singapore PR approvals down in 2011

• 2001-2004: 35,250
  
• 2005: 52,300
  
• 2006: 57,300
  
• 2007: 63,600
  
• 2008: 79,200
  
• 2009: 59,460
  
• 2010: 29,265 - Massive collapse!
  
• 2011: 27,735 - 2011 election time.
  

Massive housing debt-ridden economy & collapsing housing price
According to Singapore government data, the total net creditor country debt of Singapore currently stands at over S$389,187,022,165. With a population of 5,399,494 residents that'll be S$72,010 per person. (Not external debt, but domestic debt)
101.02% of the Gross Domestic Product.
nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/singapore

Most of the debt comes primarily from housing which have seen a stratospheric rise in price relative to the low and middle income earners which have not seen their wage growing since the early 2000s when accounting for inflation.
Housing price Index: 30 in 1986 -> 150 in 2012.

Change in household debt-to-income ratio(2007-2013):
yoursdp.org/Economy/debt.png
yoursdp.org/news/shocking_singapore_debt_statistic_in_new_report/2015-02-06-5950

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
#13 after Ireland, Eritrea, Iceland. With the first few being Japan, Zimbabwe, & Greece.

todayonline.com/business/slump-sees-over-2000-property-agents-leave-major-firms

The top-buyer of property:
May this year, a penthouse at the Le Nouvel Ardmore was sold for record 51 million Singapore dollars by Mr Sun Tongyu, the co-founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba. In sprite of the falling property prices across the board in Singapore.

propertyguru