Italy 10y vs Bund. Some spread re-compression
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is not yet bullish until the spread level can not break above Kijun.
- Resistance zone of 1,36 - 1,41 % marked by Kijun and horizontal lines held again. We saw only a temporary push to 140 bps.
- Heikin-Ashi signal suggests loss of momentum, possible start of retracement.
- Key support is around 123 bps (means Italy 10y bond yield 1,23 % above German 10y yield)
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, as Price could not break out of Kumo. Setup of averages prefers buy on dips
- Heikin-Ashi swing sell signal.
- Possible supports are at 1,30 (Kijun) and 1,27 (100wma and forward Senkou B)
As you know, I've been out of the spread trade for quite some time. Since then I held individual outright shorts in both Bunds and Italian BTP, but closed all positions.
I expect a trade down to 127 bps, there I will think about buying Bunds vs selling BTP again.
- Ichimoku setup is not yet bullish until the spread level can not break above Kijun.
- Resistance zone of 1,36 - 1,41 % marked by Kijun and horizontal lines held again. We saw only a temporary push to 140 bps.
- Heikin-Ashi signal suggests loss of momentum, possible start of retracement.
- Key support is around 123 bps (means Italy 10y bond yield 1,23 % above German 10y yield)
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, as Price could not break out of Kumo. Setup of averages prefers buy on dips
- Heikin-Ashi swing sell signal.
- Possible supports are at 1,30 (Kijun) and 1,27 (100wma and forward Senkou B)
As you know, I've been out of the spread trade for quite some time. Since then I held individual outright shorts in both Bunds and Italian BTP, but closed all positions.
I expect a trade down to 127 bps, there I will think about buying Bunds vs selling BTP again.
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